244
FXUS64 KMRX 261757
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
157 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 153 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH
DISTINCT PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND THEN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- AREAS PRONE TO MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING
40 MPH. ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM
ARKANSAS THROUGH TENNESSEE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL FOCUSED ON ROUGHLY THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WE'LL HAVE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, SIMILAR TO WHAT'S BEEN SEEN IN SOME AREAS ALREADY
TODAY, THAT MOVES IN LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN ALSO SOME SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL DRIVEN LARGELY BY INCREASED
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LARGE AND DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SETUPS OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH AN EMBEDDED
UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER DEEP SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE HEAVIER WITH THIS
EVENT DUE TO STRONGER AND MORE FAVORABLY ALIGNED JET DYNAMICS, AND
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/MONDAY THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE A THREAT OF ANY
HEAVY RAINS OR FLOODING AS PWATS AREN'T VERY HIGH AND THERE'S LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
THE ONLY OTHER TOPIC OF DISCUSSION WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT WE WON'T
REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, I THINK SOME
GUSTS INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE. THE LATEST
HREF PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 35KT REACH 30-40 PERCENT OVER THE
TYPICAL AREAS PRONE TO MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS LIKE THE SMOKIES AND
COCKE AND GREENE COUNTIES FOR INSTANCE. CERTAINLY THE H85 WIND FIELD
IS STRONGER OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND THE COMMON GA/TN/NC BORDER
AREAS TONIGHT. BUT AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD TOMORROW MOST
ALL MODELS SHOW SIGNATURES IN THE SURFACE WINDS THAT IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY. THE QUESTION IS, HOW STRONG WILL THE
WINDS GET. I HAVE GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH IN THE FORECAST GRIDS AND THAT
SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW, BUT I WOULND'T BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW 40-50 MPH GUSTS AT COVE MOUNTAIN AND EVEN CAMP CREEK BETWEEN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE H85 WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ALMOST
PURELY SOUTHEAST AND I THINK IT HAS POTENTIAL TO OUTPERFORM WHAT
THE BACKGROUND H85 WIND SPEEDS WOULD SUGGEST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW
STRONG THE CAD WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ON
WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND EVENT. THIS ONE WILL HAVE A STRONGER WIND
FIELD ACROSS THE BOARD WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF PURELY SOUTHEAST H85
WIND DIRECTION, SO ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING LEVEL WINDS SEEM
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT KTYS AND KTRI WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EVEN AS RAINFALL MOVES IN, DUE TO OVERALL LIGHT PRECIP AND
SOME SUBTLE DOWNSLOPE WIND EFFECTS ON CEILINGS. KCHA HOWEVER WILL
BE CLOSER TO RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS SUCH, EXPECT LOW-END
MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CATEGORIES THERE OVERNIGHT. ALSO, WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE TN/GA BORDER AREA TO WARRANT
INCLUDING SOME LLWS AT KCHA AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 57 52 63 / 100 100 70 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 56 50 62 / 90 100 80 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 49 55 49 60 / 90 100 80 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 47 56 46 59 / 80 70 90 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD
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