119
FXUS64 KMRX 271142
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
742 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 737 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
- A SOGGY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN TODAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO
TOTAL TO 2-3 INCHES, ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES.
- AREAS PRONE TO MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
RADAR DEPICTS RAIN SPREADING NORTHWARDS ACROSS TENNESSEE AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. CAM GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARDS
THROUGH THE MORNING. HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81, ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WOULDN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE HEAVIER RAINS THIS
MORNING, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING STRONGER VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE ICE
CRYSTAL AREA OF THE THERMO PROFILES, AGAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE RAIN
LIGHTEN OR STOP ALTOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THIS SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WHOLE OF THE AREA, AS THE FILLING MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST.
TUESDAY IS THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE WEEK AND THE WEATHER SETUP, AS
OUR FIRST SYSTEM DEPARTS (THUS ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF TN INTO VA) AND THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM COMES SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY
WITH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT, ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE
GOOD DYNAMICS FOR WEDNESDAY, THE TRUE SURFACE FRONTS WILL BE FAR
TO OUR SOUTH, AND SO IT'S NO SURPRISE THAT GUIDANCE HAS HARDLY ANY
CAPE THEN. STRONG DIVERGENCE WILL LEND ITSELF TO ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE SECOND SYSTEM HAS RISEN TO
60-70% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TOTAL RAIN THIS WEEK IS THEN
LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO 4
INCHES, SIGNIFICANTLY ERASING THE OCTOBER RAIN DEFICITS WE
ACCUMULATED LEADING INTO THIS WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK BOUT OF MOUNTAIN
WAVE WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
DEPICTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF H85 FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO MAY
INDUCE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS THEN ACROSS THE EAST TN
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
HALLOWEEN AND ESPECIALLY HALLOWEEN NIGHT STILL CARRY VERY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL, AS THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE'S FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON YET ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY, BUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE DYNAMICAL AND AI MODELS ONLY HAVE
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
RAIN TODAY. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY, WITH MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS AT KCHA LIKELY THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD, LESSER
CONFIDENCE WITH HOW CIGS AND VIS OUTSIDE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL EVOLVE AT KTYS AND KTRI. REASONABLE WORST CASE IS MVFR AND
IFR WILL BE AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 53 62 50 / 90 50 10 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 50 62 51 / 100 80 20 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 56 50 61 48 / 100 70 20 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 46 57 45 / 90 100 30 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...DGS
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