927
FXUS64 KMRX 280518
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 117 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- A SOGGY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN TODAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO
TOTAL TO 2-3 INCHES, ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES.
- AREAS PRONE TO MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND SEASONALLY COOL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, OVERCAST SKIES WILL HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE ATOP THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS WAVE SLOWLY
TRANSLATES EASTWARD, MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE AN H85
LLJ JET REMAINS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE WEAKENING FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES TO FALL TO 0.50"/HR OR LESS, THUS, HYDRO
ISSUES ARE NOT OF A CONCERN DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST &
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, MESSAGING FOR THE MOUNTAIN WINDS
IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE AS SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR 35-40KTS WILL
PROMOTE GUSTS ENCROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOUNTAIN WAVE PRONE
LOCATION AT TIMES. MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT COVE MOUNTAIN AND
STERCHI LODGE ARE GUSTS OF 38MPH AND 39MPH, RESPECTIVELY. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES AT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEPART FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. TUESDAY PM HOURS WILL BE DRY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL VALLEY LOCATIONS SOUTHWARD. FAR
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END
POPS(10-25%) BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL,
PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND SEASONALLY
COOL TEMPERATURES.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY TROUGHING AND PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADDITIONAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
THE CURRENT SYSTEM, WITH A DEEP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE GULF
COAST. BECAUSE OF THIS, NO INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT FORECAST. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS,
WHICH SHOULD LARGELY BE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. ONE NOTABLE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF SELY H85 WINDS
APPROACHING 45KTS PER LATEST NAM GUIDANCE. AS HREF MEMBERS BEGIN TO
ENCROACH ON THIS EVENT IN TEMPORAL SCALE, THEY PAINT SOME MID 40MPH
GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS. LATEST NBM
PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 40MPH MOUNTAIN WAVE PRONE AREAS
FROM 2AM WEDNESDAY TO 2AM THURSDAY INCREASE TO AROUND 30-50%. THUS,
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF SNEAKING INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LOOKING A LITTLE BIT BETTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL BEGIN TO INCLUDE SOME LOW-END WORDING IN THE
HWO.
THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUR THURSDAY. SEASONALLY COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS ATOP THE
EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, LOW POP CHANCES ARE IN PLACE AT TIMES (10-
25%) AS AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY COULD PROMOTE THE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD EXTEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
CHA WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT,
AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE HAPPENING TO CHANGE THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR MAY HAPPEN TOMORROW MORNING. TYS
AND TRI ARE LIKELY TO HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DEPSITE
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS. CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS
HIGHER AT TRI AND LOWER AT TYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 49 55 45 / 10 80 100 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 49 58 46 / 20 70 90 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 47 56 46 / 20 80 90 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 44 56 44 / 60 50 90 100
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...DGS
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