491
FXUS64 KMRX 280553
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
153 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 148 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- RAIN WILL DECREASE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY BUT RETURN AREA-
WIDE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING MORE
THAN ANOTHER INCH OF RAINFALL.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WIND
ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING.
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HALLOWEEN WITH LOW-END
RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, A SHORTWAVE IS OVERHEAD WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ANOTHER TROUGH IS
NOTED TO OUR WEST WITH AN UPSTREAM JET IN EXCESS OF 130 KTS. THIS
SETUP CONTINUES TO SUPPORT RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE DAY, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL LIFT
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL. HOWEVER,
THE STRONG UPSTREAM JET WILL CAUSE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST TO DIG AND
BECOME CUT OFF INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.
FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED WITH A NEAR 1,000MB SURFACE LOW
BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
INTERSECTION. BY WEDNESDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA,
BRINGING A RETURN IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE
RETURN IN RAIN CHANCES, THE OTHER FOCUS WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE STRONG MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE MOST EVIDENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AGAIN, THOUGH
THE TRACK ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL NOT BE TOO CONDUCIVE FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT. STILL,
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND 850MB FLOW OF OVER 40 KTS HAVE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ENOUGH FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY.
BY THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROMOTING CONTINUED BUT LIGHTER RAIN
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATER IN THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO 0
CELSIUS WITH MOISTURE STILL SUFFICIENT FOR POPS. A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BUT WITH MINIMAL
IMPACT.
FOR HALLOWEEN, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED WELL NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING. RECENT CAA AND ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MAKE THE CASE FOR NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, IN ADDITION
TO DRIER CONDITIONS. MANY PLACES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR THE DAY
WITH THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENING QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE
40S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DEEPENING TROUGHING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S FOR MOST. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH MOST SHOWING
AN INCREASE BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WOULD
LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION, BUT IT'S UNCLEAR
IF WE'LL EVEN HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
CHA WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT,
AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE HAPPENING TO CHANGE THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR MAY HAPPEN TOMORROW MORNING. TYS
AND TRI ARE LIKELY TO HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS. CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS
HIGHER AT TRI AND LOWER AT TYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 49 55 46 / 10 80 100 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 49 58 47 / 20 70 90 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 59 48 55 46 / 20 80 90 100
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 45 57 45 / 60 50 90 100
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS
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