761
FXUS64 KMRX 281757
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
157 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 132 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS RETURNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY, WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND MUCH OF THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM 3/4 TO 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
MOUNTS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH EXPECTED.
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HALLOWEEN WITH LOW-END
RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
CURRENTLY, BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, OTHERWISE CLOUDY AGAIN TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH PLENTY OF JET DYNAMICS WILL
MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY 850MB JET WILL INCREASE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCING GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOW STRONG JET FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL ENHANCE THE FRONTO-GENETIC
FORCING ALOFT ALONG AND OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY (CI) IS VERY
LIMITED AT BEST BUT ENOUGH SLANT-WISE INSTABILITY (EPV) IS
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING. CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
HREF, REFS, AND NBM DATA SHOW AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH
BUT LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
AND ONLY VERY LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES ANTICIPATED, IF ANY.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THE SOUTHERLY 850MB JET OF
35-40 KNOTS COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS (WEDGING INTO
THE CAROLINAS TO LEE-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE FOOTHILLS) WILL PRODUCE
GUSTS UP TO 55 TO 60 MPH. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY INTO
RUSSELL AND WASHINGTON COUNTY MAINLY FOR THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AREAS OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY, UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW KEEPING PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL SQUEEZE OUT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT RAIN, CLOUDY, BREEZY, AND
RAW DAY.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RETURN OF DRIER CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
WILL PRODUCE PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN.
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS ALONG
WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON IMPACTS FROM NEXT UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
LOW ON THE EVOLUATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
PMVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE FOR CHA. A PERIOD OF
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AT TYS AND TRI.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
WITH RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM CHA AND NORTHEASTWARD TO
TRI BY MID-DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AT
CHA. HOWEVER, HREF PROBABILITIES OF REDUCED CEILING CATEGORIES
RETURNING TO TYS/TRI ARE LESS THAN 20% DUE TO EXPECTED DOWNSLOPE
DRYING AS WINDS AMPLIFY FROM THE E/SE AROUND 10-15KTS. LIGHTNING IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 55 45 56 / 90 90 90 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 57 47 53 / 70 90 100 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 48 55 45 53 / 80 90 100 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 56 45 51 / 50 90 100 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON VA.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...KRS
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