868
FXUS64 KMRX 290519 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 118 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS RETURNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY, WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND MUCH OF THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM 3/4 TO 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
MOUNTS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH EXPECTED.
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HALLOWEEN WITH LOW-END
RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
CURRENTLY, BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, OTHERWISE CLOUDY AGAIN TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH PLENTY OF JET DYNAMICS WILL
MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY 850MB JET WILL INCREASE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCING GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOW STRONG JET FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL ENHANCE THE FRONTO-GENETIC
FORCING ALOFT ALONG AND OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY (CI) IS VERY
LIMITED AT BEST BUT ENOUGH SLANT-WISE INSTABILITY (EPV) IS
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING. CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
HREF, REFS, AND NBM DATA SHOW AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH
BUT LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
AND ONLY VERY LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES ANTICIPATED, IF ANY.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THE SOUTHERLY 850MB JET OF
35-40 KNOTS COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS (WEDGING INTO
THE CAROLINAS TO LEE-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE FOOTHILLS) WILL PRODUCE
GUSTS UP TO 55 TO 60 MPH. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY INTO
RUSSELL AND WASHINGTON COUNTY MAINLY FOR THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AREAS OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY, UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW KEEPING PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL SQUEEZE OUT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT RAIN, CLOUDY, BREEZY, AND
RAW DAY.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RETURN OF DRIER CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
WILL PRODUCE PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN.
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS ALONG
WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON IMPACTS FROM NEXT UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
LOW ON THE EVOLUATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE VARIABLE BEWTEEN VFR
AND MVFR AT CHA AND TYS, THEN SETTLE INTO MVFR AT CHA FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. AT TYS, DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
RAISE CIGS TO VFR STARTING AROUND 06-08Z. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL ALSO KEEP VFR CIGS AT TRI. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AROUND 12Z-16Z, LOWERING VIS AND CIGS TO MVFR AT TYS AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT CHA AT TIMES. LLWS WILL BE MENTIONED TONIGHT AT CHA AS
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PRECIPITATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 45 56 40 / 90 90 30 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 47 53 40 / 90 100 60 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 45 53 39 / 90 100 70 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 45 51 39 / 90 100 80 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON VA.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS
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