381
FXUS64 KMRX 290558
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
158 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
- RAIN WILL MOVE IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON
INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HALLOWEEN INTO SATURDAY
WITH LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAINFALL RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, A DEEPENING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, WIDESPREAD RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO, THE
STRONG MSLP GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB FLOW OF OVER 40 KTS
WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH THE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. DOWNSLOPING WILL LIMIT RAIN TOTALS CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAINS INITIALLY, BUT THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MANY PLACES CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST ANOTHER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH FLOODING THREATS REMAINING
LIMITED DUE TO THE LONG DURATION OF RAINFALL. MOISTURE WILL PULL OUT
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY COLD ENOUGH FOR
A BRIEF MIX WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
FOR HALLOWEEN, HIGH PRESSURE AND RECENT CAA WILL PRODUCE COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S AND TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S AFTER SUNSET. FOR SATURDAY, ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THIS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH
A WEAK SYSTEM IN THE GULF, IN ADDITION TO MOISTURE IN THE REGION.
SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW AN OUTCOME PRODUCING PRECIP IN THE AREA WHILE
OTHERS DO NOT. THE WETTER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING, I.E. PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL WITH AT LEAST LOW-
END RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR AT CHA AND TYS, THEN SETTLE INTO MVFR AT CHA FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. AT TYS, DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
RAISE CIGS TO VFR STARTING AROUND 06-08Z. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL ALSO KEEP VFR CIGS AT TRI. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
AROUND 12Z-16Z, LOWERING VIS AND CIGS TO MVFR AT TYS AND POSSIBLY
IFR AT CHA AT TIMES. LLWS WILL BE MENTIONED TONIGHT AT CHA AS
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PRECIPITATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 45 55 39 / 100 60 30 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 46 54 41 / 90 90 60 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 44 54 38 / 100 90 70 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 45 51 39 / 90 100 80 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON VA.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS
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