693
FXUS64 KMRX 291130
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 722 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
- RAIN WILL MOVE IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON
INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HALLOWEEN INTO SATURDAY
WITH LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAINFALL RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, A DEEPENING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, WIDESPREAD RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO, THE
STRONG MSLP GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB FLOW OF OVER 40 KTS
WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH THE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. DOWNSLOPING WILL LIMIT RAIN TOTALS CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAINS INITIALLY, BUT THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MANY PLACES CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST ANOTHER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH FLOODING THREATS REMAINING
LIMITED DUE TO THE LONG DURATION OF RAINFALL. MOISTURE WILL PULL OUT
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY COLD ENOUGH FOR
A BRIEF MIX WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
FOR HALLOWEEN, HIGH PRESSURE AND RECENT CAA WILL PRODUCE COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S AND TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S AFTER SUNSET. FOR SATURDAY, ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THIS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH
A WEAK SYSTEM IN THE GULF, IN ADDITION TO MOISTURE IN THE REGION.
SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW AN OUTCOME PRODUCING PRECIP IN THE AREA WHILE
OTHERS DO NOT. THE WETTER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING, I.E. PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL WITH AT LEAST LOW-
END RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS RAIN SPREADS THROUGH THE AREA. REDUCTIONS ARE ALREADY BEING
OBSERVED AT CHA WITH REDUCTIONS AT TYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ABOVE THE SURFACE AT CHA, BREEZY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL LIMIT OVERALL LLWS POTENTIAL. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
WEAKER AT TYS AND THEN INCREASE AT TRI INTO THE EVENING. WITH
WEAKER WINDS AT THE SURFACE, LLWS IS LIKELY TO BE REACHED. FOR ALL
OF THE SITES, REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR AT SOME POINT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 45 55 39 / 100 60 30 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 46 54 41 / 90 90 60 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 44 54 38 / 100 90 70 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 45 51 39 / 90 100 80 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON VA.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
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