652
FXUS64 KMRX 292338
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 723 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
-STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THE EVENING
TODAY.
- RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
SOME SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HALLOWEEN INTO SATURDAY
WITH LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAINFALL RETURNING SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
WE START WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHICH IS BRINGING RAIN TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTERLY THIS
EVENING, THE MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
THE NORMALLY PRONE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS, AND THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE KEPT AS IS FOR NOW WITH AN EXPIRATION OF 10 PM
EDT. THE RAIN COVERAGE WILL FLUCTUATE AND WILL BE SLOW TO
COMPLETELY EXIT, BUT WE WILL SEE AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH
SOUTH, WITH CLOSER TO AN INCH NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING BEGINNING
LATER TONIGHT, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED TEMPERATURES IN THE
CLOUD LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALLIZATION FOR AT
LEAST SOME OF THIS PERIOD MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF E TN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE MAY
BE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH OR SO OVER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET. HREF ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS
AROUND A 30 TO 40% CHANCE OF A HALF INCH OR MORE OF ACCUMULATION
OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR HALLOWEEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 50S AND
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S AFTER SUNSET. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, BUT THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHING OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW AN OUTCOME PRODUCING PRECIP IN
THE AREA WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. THE WETTER SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE
RAIN. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL WITH
AT LEAST LOW-END RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH HOW
QUICKLY THINGS DRY OUT AFTER THAT DETERMINED BY THE STILL UNCERTAIN
TRACK/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE MORNING HOURS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, OFF AND ON SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER OR TWO
ESPECIALLY NEAR TRI. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. IF VIS DROPS I AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT WILL STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5 SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE A HEAVIER SHOWER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 45 55 40 61 / 60 20 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 53 40 58 / 80 40 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 45 53 38 57 / 80 50 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 51 39 53 / 100 60 50 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-
WASHINGTON VA.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...MCD
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