469
FXUS64 KMRX 300606
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
206 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 201 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH COVERAGE SHIFTING TOWARDS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
- DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HALLOWEEN AND
SATURDAY.
- LOW-END RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, A CLOSED LOW IS OVER THE REGION WITH
ITS SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. ACCORDINGLY, LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE, 850MB FLOW, AND THE
MSLP GRADIENT, A COOL AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN. BY THE EVENING HOURS, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT
OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MUCH ABOVE 800MB, BUT 25 KTS
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LINGERING CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT, BUT THIS WINDOW IS SHORT AS TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW 850MB LIKELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
FOR HALLOWEEN, TROUGHING WILL LIFT WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH SUBSIDENCE AND 850MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING,
A COOL AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
50S, QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 40S DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ON
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH REINFORCING
TROUGHING ALOFT KEEPING DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE PULL FROM THE GULF
SUFFICIENT FOR A RETURN OF LOW-END POPS. CURRENTLY, LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN IN THE
AREA. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE CLOSED LOW
WILL INTERACT WITH A DISTURBANCE IN GULF WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING SOUTH IN ANY CASE. HEIGHT RISES WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH OVERALL LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
CIGS HAVE STARTED TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH THE LATEST OBS. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AT
CHA AND TYS, WITH DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LOWERING VIS TO
MVFR AT TYS. IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT TRI, WHICH MAY INITIALLY
BE VARIABLE BUT SETTLE INTO PREDOMINANT IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT.
DRIZZLE AND RAIN THERE WILL KEEP IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 40 61 38 / 20 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 53 40 58 39 / 40 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 53 39 57 36 / 50 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 39 53 36 / 50 40 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS
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