272
FXUS64 KMRX 302354
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
754 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 734 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME RIME ICE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS.
- DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HALLOWEEN AND
SATURDAY.
- LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN CAA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TODAY. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS RESULTING IN SOME CONTINUED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ABOVE 5000 FEET ELEVATION, TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING WITH SOME RIME ICE AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. WE
HAD 0.2 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED AT MOUNT LECONTE THIS MORNING FOR
THE FIRST, ALBEIT LIGHT, ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEARING CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AREA-WIDE FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED. CLOUDS INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. IF RAIN DOES OCCUR, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 0.1 INCH FOR MOST AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK.
ULTIMATELY, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE REMAINS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT TRI. AFTER THIS, DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. VFR CIG ARE KNOCKING ON CHA'S FRONT DOOR,
SO CIG WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THERE
MAY STILL BE BRIEF CIG CHANGES BACK TO MVFR, AT TYS AND TRI, FOR
INSTANCE. TYS AND TRI SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTS OVERNIGHT AS WELL, BUT
WILL RETAIN THEM FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES AROUND +/-
20KT. CHA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER
CIG OR HIGHER GUSTS TOMORROW. ONCE THE LOW CENTERED OVER PA
DEEPENS 20 MB OR SO OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER FRIDAY, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD
LEADING TO CALM CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 41 62 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 41 59 39 61 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 39 59 36 59 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 54 35 57 / 50 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...KS
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