102
FXUS64 KMRX 311115
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 712 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S, QUICKLY FALLING
INTO THE 40S AFTER SUNSET.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO LIFT TO
OUR NORTHEAST WITH THE SYSTEM THAT RECENTLY IMPACTED THE AREA MOVING
INTO NEW ENGLAND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN BUT WEAKEN TO 25
KTS OR LESS WITH SOME 850MB MOISTURE KEEPING CHANCES FOR A FEW
MORNING FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY WINDS AND
GRADUAL CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HEADING INTO SATURDAY, TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING PLACES COOL AND DRY FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER, A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP CHANCES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL
RAIN AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY
SUNDAY, A CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF AND INTERACT WITH A
DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF, SHIFTING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST.
BY MONDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL AGAIN AS THE CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE BACK IN THE AREA, PROMOTING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE REGION
DRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
AT THE TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE, ALL 3 TAF SITES ARE VFR, BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TRI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER, VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREVAILING CATEGORY THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
TYS AND TRI WITH TRI SEEING THE STRONGEST. CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 TO
5,000 FEET WILL LINGER AROUND TRI THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
SCATTERING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 38 62 46 / 0 0 0 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 38 61 45 / 0 0 0 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 36 59 44 / 0 0 0 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 34 58 42 / 0 0 0 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
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