539
FXUS64 KMRX 160557
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1257 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
- WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING, HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN VA. ONLY MEAGER RAIN AMOUNTS
WITH FRONT.
- MILD TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW ON TODAY, EXTREMELY LOW
ON MONDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
TODAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION BETWEEN WINDS AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
- TWO POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF RAIN LATER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
MINOR WIND EVENT GOING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS CURRENTLY. WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH HREF
MEAN WIND GUSTS. COVE MOUNTAIN IN THE SMOKIES HAS OBSERVED GUSTS
INTO THE MID-40S MPH THUS FAR. HRRR AND OTHER CAM GUIDANCE BRING
THE BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT ONLY
MEAGER RAINFALL WILL RESULT. BEHIND THE FRONT, A VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND, WITH PW VALUES SLIPPING TO 0.25" BY MONDAY
MORNING RESULTING IN LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY LOW RH
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO TODAY BUT
WILL BE LIGHT ON MONDAY. VIRGINIA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD TODAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER BETWEEN THE STILL BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES, THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN SHORT OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALOUS WARMTH WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING AND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
OVER 582DM, ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GLANCING BLOW FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WARM FRONT PASSING EARLY ON TUESDAY
MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN, THOUGH IT WILL BE WORKING AGAINST THE
LINGERING DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE'S PASSAGE,
WE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE'S INFLUENCE. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY CARRY A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT CHATTANOOGA. KNOXVILLE AND TRI-CITIES RECORDS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AND THUS UNLIKELY TO BE MET.
PAST THURSDAY, STILL EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EJECT FROM
THE ROCKIES BUT RECENT GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WEAKER SYSTEM, PERHAPS A
FILLING LOW, MOVING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS MAY REDUCE RAINFALL
SIGNIFICANTLY (AS SHOWN IN RECENT GFS RUNS) AND EVEN THE EC-AI HAS
BACKED A BIT OFF ON RAIN AMOUNTS. IT STILL IS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE WHOLE OF THE AREA THOUGH AND WE REMAIN
SIX DAYS OUT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ESPECIALLY NORTH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS AT TRI
SO WILL INCLUDE MVFR AS PREVAILING THERE, AND AT TYS WILL INCLUDE
MVFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP. WINDS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO LESSEN THE LLWS THREAT AND WINDS AT
2KFT WILL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE LLWS IN THIS
ISSUANCE. THE SKY WILL BE CLEARING IN THE MORNING HOURS AND WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
MAINLY TRI AND TYS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 39 65 41 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 35 60 39 / 10 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 34 60 39 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 30 55 34 / 10 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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