967
FXUS64 KMRX 262302
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
602 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 559 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
- DRY AND COLDER THROUGH SATURDAY.
- RAIN RETURNS BY SUNDAY, WITH ACTIVE/RAINY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION UNDER A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE EASTERN US AS WE HEAD INTO THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
BUT ON THE COLD SIDE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH FRIDAY
LIKELY TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE THREE DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST,
AND WHILE THERMAL PROFILES CURRENTLY LOOK TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN,
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF WINTRY PRECIP AT THE ONSET
IN A FEW SPOTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE E TN MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A SURFACE
LOW TRACKING BY MOST LIKELY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE DETAILS OF
COURSE ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN, BUT RIGHT NOW THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKELY TO BRING MAINLY RAIN. CURRENT ENSEMBLE DATA DOES SUGGEST
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX IN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND/OR HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF 24 HOUR SNOWFALL EXCEEDING 1 INCH TOPPING OUT AROUND
10% ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TRACK TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST, THE TRENDS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE
IF THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP INCREASES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ALONG WITH DRIER AIR DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
OVERALL, LIMITED AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. GUSTS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED
AT CHA AND TYS WITH TRI LIKELY KEEPING GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE THE GROUND WILL ALSO
BE APPROACHING 30 KTS OVER TRI, BUT LLWS WAS LEFT OUT. THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING, WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS LIKELY AT TRI AND TYS.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BUT MAINLY ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 49 28 46 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 45 24 41 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 32 45 24 42 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 30 42 22 36 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW
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