880
FXUS64 KMRX 270620
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
120 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
- DRY AND COLDER THROUGH SATURDAY.
- RAIN RETURNS BY SUNDAY, WITH ACTIVE/RAINY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS CANADIAN AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL START TO MOVE OUT ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COLDER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO THE
NORTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE SOME MIXED PRECIP OR LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHERN AREAS.
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A WIND
DIRECTION FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION
BRINGING 850 MB WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS.
NBM HAS LOW PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS TO
ME LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS A LOW MOVES EITHER ALONG THE GULF COAST OR THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT WE WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE TO MONITOR THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
SINCE WE WILL HAVE COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. A
PERIOD OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10KTS TONIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20KTS RETURN TO TRI/TYS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE WILL BE A WEAK 25-30KT LLJ ATOP
THE REGION TONIGHT, LLWS CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE MET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 28 46 26 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 24 42 23 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 45 23 42 22 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 21 37 19 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...99
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