275
FXUS64 KMRX 271741
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1241 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
- DRY AND COLDER THROUGH SATURDAY.
- RAIN RETURNS BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVE/RAINY WEATHER
CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
- GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS
OF THE E TN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION UNDER A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US, AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL
BE QUITE COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
TURNING MORE ZONAL AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST AND
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE
FORECAST, AND WHILE THERMAL PROFILES CURRENTLY LOOK TO SUPPORT
MAINLY RAIN, THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF WINTRY PRECIP
AT THE ONSET IN A FEW SPOTS MAINLY NORTH. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
LIKELY IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE E TN
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH A DIRECTION THAT MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT (IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT DIRECTION LOOKS
CLOSE TO BEING A BIT TOO WESTERLY). 850 MB FLOW LOOKS LIKELY TO BE
AROUND 40 KT WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE USUAL HIGHER
ELEVATION AND FOOTHILLS OF THE E TN MOUNTAINS ASSUMING THE DIRECTION
IS FAVORABLE.
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN
TRACKING BY MOST LIKELY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE DETAILS OF COURSE
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT RIGHT NOW THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKELY TO BRING
MAINLY RAIN, WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT ENSEMBLE DATA DOES SUGGEST THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND/OR HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF 24 HOUR
SNOWFALL EXCEEDING 1 INCH TOPPING OUT AROUND 10% ACROSS THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, THE TRENDS
ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE IF THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY
PRECIP INCREASES ESPECIALLY ON OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES. AS
THIS SYSTEM EXITS, THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE,
ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS TO BE BRIEF.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ALONG WITH DRIER AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TRI LATE TONIGHT, BUT WILL JUST INCLUDE
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 3 KFT OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 27 47 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 24 43 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 23 43 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 22 38 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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