396
FXUS64 KMRX 281225
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 715 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
- DRY AND COLDER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS MAY SEE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX EARLY SUNDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY SEE INITIAL WINTRY
MIX WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
CURRENTLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, TROUGHING IS CENTERED TO OUR EAST
WITH BROAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE REGION. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH JUST A LIGHT BREEZE
AS MIXING HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 4KFT TAP INTO WEAK H85 FLOW NEAR
15-20KTS. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL INTO THE 20S
AND EVEN POSSIBLY TEENS FOR SOME IN THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARDS A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND
DEVELOPING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES FOR
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA, ITS 850MB JET
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 40 KTS WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO
OUR EAST HELPING TO CREATE A STRONGER MSLP GRADIENT ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, THE DIRECTION OF THIS FLOW IS A BIT WESTERLY
FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN WAVES, BUT THE OTHER FACTORS STILL
SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z-18Z SUNDAY. A WIND
PRODUCT MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY, MOST SOURCES SUGGEST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT DUE TO THE STRONG 850FLOW, THIS
COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN. HOWEVER, WAA IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING SOON AFTER ONSET, YIELDING MINIMAL IMPACT. THIS WILL THEN
GIVE WAY TO A COLD RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
EVENING, CAA RETURNS, BUT MOISTURE WILL EXIT RATHER QUICKLY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL
AND LARGELY DRY ON MONDAY WITH FOCUS THEN TURNING TOWARDS OUR
SOUTHWEST. TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AGAIN AS IT EJECTS OUT OF
THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS NORTHEAST
WITH THE RECENT HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE A COLD AIR
DAMMING SETUP JUST TO OUR EAST AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE TROUGHING.
WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, THE QUESTION OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL ARISE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST CONSENSUS LARGELY KEEPS
FREEZING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO OUR EAST, BUT SOME SOURCES DO
SHOW THIS FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES CELSIUS, A STRONG WARM NOSE WILL EXIST
ONCE AGAIN, LIKELY KEEPING MOST PLACES ABOVE FREEZING BELOW THIS
LEVEL. STILL, SOME PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE AREA WARMS. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
THIS SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CAA PRESENTING CHANCES FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING. THIS WOULD BE MORE PROMINENT ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS BUT STILL POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
MOISTURE LINGERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
LATE IN THE WEEK, ADDITIONAL TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN ANY DETAILS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
POSSIBLE AT TRI. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 27 50 41 / 0 0 0 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 23 49 37 / 0 0 0 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 42 23 48 36 / 0 0 0 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 38 20 48 33 / 0 0 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KRS
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