021
FXUS64 KMRX 291832
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1247 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
- WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 45-55 MPH.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY
THROUGH NOON. HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS MAY SEE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX BUT
IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL OR NONE.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FAR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,
MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS AT MOST.
- DRY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH SKY BECOMIE MOSTLY CLOUDY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE THE
GULF MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION IS LIMITED DUE TO RIDGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT.
REFS PROBABILITIES OF SNOW AND ICE SHOW LOW CHANCES OF A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
MAIN CONCERN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. 850MB JET
OF 40-45 KNOTS WITH DECENT RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR GUSTS UP TO 45-55 MPH FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
REFS GUSTS PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY HIGH FOR EXCEEDANCE OF 50 MPH
BUT NOT FOR 60 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
NEXT MOVES INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG OVER THE
REGION PRODUCING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EAST TUESDAY. JET
DYNAMICS PRODUCES STRONG FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRONG OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH THE NAM THE
STRONGEST. LREF ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONG ENOUGH JET ALONG WITH
RIDGING OVER THE CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT
FOR THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3/4 TO 1 1/2
INCHES. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
COLD AIR ADVECTING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE WINTRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM. THE IMPACTS WILL BE
DETERMINED ON THE AMOUNT OF PHASING OCCURS WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SEVERAL CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONE IS POTENTIAL
LLWS AT TRI AND TYS. MARGINAL PROBABILITY BETWEEN 05-14Z AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. NEXT IS DETEORIATING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TOWARD DAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 41 51 29 50 / 50 50 0 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 38 50 27 49 / 40 50 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 38 49 25 48 / 50 40 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 33 46 23 49 / 30 40 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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