710
FXUS64 KMRX 301714
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1214 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
- WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS UNTIL SUNRISE. GUSTS UP TO 45-55 MPH.
- HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ABOVE 5,000 FEET, MAY SEE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX
THROUGH SUNRISE BUT IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL TO NONE.
- VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS,
INCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX. RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. PERHAPS A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
LATE TUESDAY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS MOISTURE IS EXITING.
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS AT MOST.
- DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 723 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
JUST A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO OMIT THE PREVIOUS HWO WORDING
FOR WIND AND WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PRE-DAYBREAK. THIS
ALSO INCLUDED ALLOWING THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7AM AS
ORIGINALLY PLANNED. BASED ON VARIOUS PWS DATA, WIND GUSTS HAVE
LARGELY FALLEN BELOW 40MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
THE LLJ VEERING MORE WESTERLY. ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY CONTINUE AT THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE THE JET BEGINS DEPARTURE, BUT AGAIN, THAT SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE TALLEST PEAKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH ROUGHLY MID-DAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE REGION, TRENDING DRIER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. WE HAVE
ALSO RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. ON AND OFF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE THEN EXITS EAST BY THIS EVENING. A LIGHT WINTERY
MIX IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS, ABOVE 5,000 FEET, BUT WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. GUSTY WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNRISE ACROSS THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
WE DRY OUT THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COLDER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST.
PLEASANT ON MONDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 BY
AFTERNOON.
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW JET DYNAMICS TO BE QUITE STRONG WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE RESULT IS STRONG FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING. THE NAM
REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET, WITH A 55KT 850MB JET
IN PLACE ON MONDAY NIGHT. LREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A 35KT JET, WHICH
IS SIMILAR TO DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT FOR THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.
ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH 0.75 TO AROUND 1.00
INCHES FOR MOST PLACES. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
COLD AIR ADVECTING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE WINTRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST TN MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST VA. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA, VERY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. MINOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM. THE IMPACTS WILL BE
DETERMINED ON THE AMOUNT OF PHASING OCCURS WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
IFR AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AT AREA TERMINALS. THIS IS
DUE TO OVERRUNNING AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPMENT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 22Z AND 0Z THIS EVENING. CLEARING CONDITIONS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 30 50 40 47 / 0 60 100 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 27 49 39 46 / 0 40 100 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 25 47 37 44 / 0 40 100 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 22 49 35 44 / 0 10 90 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...JB
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