592
FXUS64 KMRX 010534
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1234 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FAR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,
MAY BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.
- A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS. LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS AT MOST. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS.
- DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
TODAY, SURFACE RIDGING WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY, WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT- WAVE WILL
DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL PHASE WITH A SHORT
STREAM JET ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG JET DYNAMICS THAT WILL ENHANCING THE FRONTO-
GENETIC FORCING ALONG A BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION.
RAIN:
THE HREF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA AND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NC. THE REFS MEANS SHOW SIMILAR
VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS BUT LOWER AMOUNTS, AROUND 0.5
TO 0.75, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL, I'D EXPECT A HIGH
CHANCE THAT MOST AREAS SEE AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES AND A MODERATE CHANCE
TO SEE 0.75 INCHES. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO
1.25 INCHES.
WINTER:
THE REFS AND HREF BOTH A SHOW THAT A POCKET OF FREEZING RAIN
IS LIKELY NEAR THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
STATE LINE. THE COMMUNITIES OF TRADE, MOUNTAIN CITY, AND SHADEY
VALLEY MAY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF ICING FROM ROUGHLY 10 PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING. POSSIBLY EFFECTING EASTERN SECTIONS
OF RUSSELL AND WASHINGTON COUNTY AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED. MINOR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELEVATED
SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST, AND COLDER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO
SHOW RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET, THEN SNOW, TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU, ALONG THE
TN/KY STATE LINE, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND THE FAR NORTHEAST
EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE,
GENERALLY 1 INCH OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS
THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW.
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM THE SNOW.
WIND:
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS, AND A
PROBABLE LOW-END MOUNTAIN WAVE, ACROSS THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. MODELS ARE SHOWING BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
SEE WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 45 MPH. THE QUESTION IS, HOW WIDESPREAD
WILL THE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BE. FOR THIS REASON, WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE UNTIL
ANOTHER ROUND OF HI-RES MODEL DATA COMES IN. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS WOULD BE FROM 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH
SURFACE RIDGING PRODUCING DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS.
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, PHASING OF AN ANOTHER
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LOOK PLAUSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN. COLDER AIR FROM WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS MAY ONCE AGAIN
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. THEN, CEILINGS WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. MVFR AT CHA BY AFTERNOON, THEN TYS BY EVENING,
THEN TRI AT THE END OR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD.
LLWS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE NEXT ISSUANCE AS 2000 FOOT WINDS
BEGIN TO RAMP UP NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 40 46 27 / 40 100 40 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 48 38 45 26 / 20 100 80 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 47 37 43 25 / 20 100 60 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 36 43 24 / 0 100 90 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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