439
FXUS64 KMRX 022352
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
652 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
- DRY WEATHER NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA FRIDAY.
- VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
A DREARY DAY IS LOCKED IN FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WITH HREF
DEPICTING PERHAPS SOME HOLES IN THE LOW STRATUS DECK AS NORTHWEST
FLOW CASCADES OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE VALLEY. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THE RAIN HAS DISSIPATED, AND WHILE LIGHT DRIZZLE IS PRESENT ON
RADAR, NOT OBSERVING ANY EITHER HERE OR AT REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER BUT LIKELY STILL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING
AROUND. LEFT FOG OUT AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, BUT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE FREEZING FOG AS THEY INTERACT WITH LOW CLOUDS.
A SHORT BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS OR SO
BEFORE A COASTAL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES, WHILE A POWERFUL 150 KNOT UPPER JET EXISTS TO OUR NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL CREATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT P-TYPE EXISTING,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE EURO BRINGS SATURATION QUICKER FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,
BUT THE GFS IS DRIER THEN. NAM DEPICTS A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
EURO, BUT THE LOWEST 2 KM OF ATMOSPHERE IS VERY VERY CLOSE TO THE
0C ISOTHERM, SMALL CHANGES EITHER DIRECTION MAY PRODUCE A SHORT
ALL SNOW BOUT OR WINTRY MIX BEFORE PRECIPITATION CONCLUDES LATER
ON FRIDAY. LREF PROBABILITIES ARE A SIMILAR MIXED BAG. FOR NOW
KEEPING WITH THE NBM'S ADVERTISEMENT OF UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW,
WITH THE EURO MORE AGGRESSIVE.
OVER THE WEEKEND LOW PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY
RAIN IF ANYTHING, EXIST AS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY LOBES PIVOT
THROUGH THE VARIOUS JET STREAMS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
AREA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
SHOWN IN BOTH EURO AND GFS FOR NEXT MONDAY. BETWEEN THE ACTIVE
PATTERN AND THE COUPLE OF TROUGHS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
DECEMBER GLOOM AND CHILL THROUGH THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
MVFR CIG WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR/LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, SO CHA WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR SOONER THAN THE OTHERS. FOG POSSIBILITY WAS LEFT
FROM THE 18Z ISSUANCE AT TYS AND TRI. ONCE DAY BREAKS ON
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH VERY
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS, AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 27 50 32 49 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 27 47 30 46 / 10 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 25 46 29 45 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 26 44 26 43 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...KS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page