927
FXUS64 KMRX 191154 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
654 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
- COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY, BUT THEY REBOUND
QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN MILD INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF I-40 POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
MOMENT, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD OF IT. THAT LINE, WHICH HAD A HISTORY OF WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50-60 MPH, WAS SITUATED FROM WEST VIRGINIA DOWN THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS OF 1230 AM, WITH THE ONLY PART OF IT
STILL WITHIN OUR CWA CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OUR VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND THE TRI-CITIES AND NORTHEAST TN AREA. THIS SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 2AM AT THE LATEST, WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN QUITE
STRONG THROUGH 08-09Z OR SO, BEFORE 850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY
AND DROP OFF. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THAT
TIME.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM EARLY FRIDAY, THE WINDOW FOR SNOW
BETWEEN DEPARTING MOISTURE AND INCOMING COLD AIR LOOKS BRIEF. THE
UPPER TROUGH CLOSELY TRAILS THE SURFACE FRONT, USHERING IN RAPID
DRYING ALOFT AND ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNRISE OR
THEREABOUTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, FRIDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
BRING LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS APPEAR UNLIKELY. HIGHS NEXT WEEK SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
THE 50S.
MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES TUESDAY–WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES, BUT IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL. TOWARD LATE WEEK, A
BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FAVORS DRY, MILD
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CATEGORIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECOND, TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST TN THIS MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS QUITE BREEZY AT KTRI AND KTYS, WITH WINDS SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 30 58 40 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 27 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 43 27 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 24 56 32 / 20 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD
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