674
FXUS64 KMRX 201142 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
642 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 629 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEEK CULMINATING IN AN UNUSUALLY WARM CHRISTMAS
THIS YEAR. TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER, WITH STRONG RETURN FLOW
BRINGING A MILD AIRMASS BACK INTO THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF A DRY
COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL PASS BY ON SUNDAY, WITH ZERO RAINFALL
EXPECTED.
A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE
NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT RIDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE TRY TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AGAIN. BY CHRISTMAS DAY, THE 500MB RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
BE NEAR RECORD HEIGHTS, AND THE 850 RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WITH 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE LREF ENSEMBLE
MEAN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE STRENGTH AS WELL. ALL THIS TO SAY
IT WILL BE AN UNUSUALLY WARM CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. OTHER THAN SANTA
NOT NEEDING A COAT, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE FORECAST,
WITH GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO
SOME VCSH ALONG WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z-09Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN EITHER OF THOSE CASES. WILL KEEP ALL
SITES VFR AND ADVERTISE LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS LATE IN THE PERIOD
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME LLWS CONDITIONS AT KTYS AND KTRI FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 40 58 34 / 0 10 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 38 54 30 / 0 10 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 38 54 30 / 0 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 33 50 24 / 0 0 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...CD
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