538
FXUS64 KMRX 210610
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
110 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL YIELD A
VERY DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION, BUT NOT MUCH ELSE OTHERWISE.
TEMPERATURES THEN TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE A STANDARD DECEMBER
CHILL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING IN THE OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE FLOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE, BUT THE AMOUNTS ARE PALTRY. THE
BUILDING RIDGE REALLY DOMINATES HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS DAY,
DELIVERING TEMPERATURES FAR ABOVE NORMAL. PROBABILITIES FOR RECORD
CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK LOW AT ALL 3 AIRPORTS, THOUGH
CHATTANOOGA IS FORECAST TO GET CLOSE.
FORECAST HIGH NORMAL HIGH RECORD HIGH
CHATTANOOGA: 72 52 75
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT: 68 49 76
TRI-CITIES: 65 48 74
BEYOND CHRISTMAS, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MID-SOUTH, BUT THE SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL OTHERWISE MAINTAIN MILD
WEATHER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF RAIN THEN, BUT UNCERTAINTY MAY END UP YIELDING A DRIER
FORECAST, SHOULD THE FRONT FAIL TO REACH THIS FAR SOUTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
MINIMAL LLWS TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT KTRI BEFORE
UPPER WINDS WEAKEN BELOW THRESHOLDS AGAIN. STRATUS DECK PASSING
THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN VFR TERRITORY, SO
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY, THOUGH AN ISOLATED GUST TO 15 KNOTS IN THE DAYTIME IS
POSSIBLE AT KCHA OR KTYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 33 57 47 / 10 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 28 57 45 / 0 0 0 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 53 30 55 45 / 0 0 0 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 25 55 38 / 0 0 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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