363
FXUS64 KMRX 211147 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
647 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL YIELD A
VERY DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION, BUT NOT MUCH ELSE OTHERWISE.
TEMPERATURES THEN TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE A STANDARD DECEMBER
CHILL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING IN THE OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE FLOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE, BUT THE AMOUNTS ARE PALTRY. THE
BUILDING RIDGE REALLY DOMINATES HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS DAY,
DELIVERING TEMPERATURES FAR ABOVE NORMAL. PROBABILITIES FOR RECORD
CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK LOW AT ALL 3 AIRPORTS, THOUGH
CHATTANOOGA IS FORECAST TO GET CLOSE.
FORECAST HIGH NORMAL HIGH RECORD HIGH
CHATTANOOGA: 72 52 75
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT: 68 49 76
TRI-CITIES: 65 48 74
BEYOND CHRISTMAS, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MID-SOUTH, BUT THE SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL OTHERWISE MAINTAIN MILD
WEATHER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF RAIN THEN, BUT UNCERTAINTY MAY END UP YIELDING A DRIER
FORECAST, SHOULD THE FRONT FAIL TO REACH THIS FAR SOUTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.VFR LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY OR SO BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 33 57 47 / 10 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 28 57 45 / 0 0 0 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 53 30 55 45 / 0 0 0 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 25 55 38 / 0 0 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...CD
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