774
FXUS64 KMRX 211746
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1246 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH RH'S
FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S AND EVEN UPPER TEENS.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE BY TUESDAY.
- DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
CURRENTLY, TROUGHING IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS. THIS SETUP HAS PUT THE REGION IN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR, WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME SPOTS WITH MANY LIKELY TO SEE VALUES DEEP
INTO THE 20S AND EVEN UPPER TEENS FOR SOME. ON MONDAY, TROUGHING
WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING JUST TO
OUR EAST. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY WILL LEAD TO A WEAKER MSLP GRADIENT
AND LIGHTER WINDS BUT DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW STRENGTHENING TO 40
KTS OR GREATER. WHILE THE SETUP IS NOT IDEAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES,
STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW 850MB WARM ENOUGH FOR NO FROZEN PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE BY CHRISTMAS EVE AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, BROAD RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST WILL SUPPORT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH MOST
PLACES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ALSO DEVELOP TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND TRACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING ANOTHER
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT STILL LACKING INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WHOLE TAF PERIOD WITH
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 34 58 48 / 10 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 53 29 56 43 / 0 0 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 53 30 55 43 / 0 0 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 24 55 37 / 0 0 0 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
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