413
FXUS64 KMRX 220617
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
117 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH RH'S FALLING WELL INTO
THE 20S.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE TUESDAY. AMOUNTS ARE MEAGER, IF
ANY.
- UNUSUAL MILD WEATHER IN TIME FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP TODAY, WITH RETURN FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO A
WEAK BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPTING TO ISSUE
A LATE SEASON FIRE DANGER STATEMENT, BUT FUEL MOISTURE DATA SEEMS
MARGINALLY OKAY DESPITE THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE. HIGHEST DANGER IS ALONG THE GEORGIAN BORDER, WHERE A
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND THE AVAILABLE WINDS EXISTS.
WEAK BOUNDARY SETS UP TOMORROW INTO CHRISTMAS EVE TO OUR NORTH,
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ATTEMPT TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE,
HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL RUN INTERFERENCE. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEXT TO NOTHING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND MANY AREAS MAY ONLY
SEE VIRGA OR SPRINKLES ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE LOW LEVELS
MAY BE ABLE TO SATURATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. RAINFALL WILL REMAIN MEAGER.
THE MOST UNUSUAL WEATHER IS STILL THE EXCEPTIONAL MILD WEATHER
HEADING INTO AND BEYOND DAY 1 OF CHRISTMAS, WITH VERY ABNORMAL
TEMPERATURES DOMINATING LATE WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEANCE THAT
A COUPLE SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND BEGIN ERODING
THE SOUTHERN RIDGE, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO COOLER WEATHER A FULL
WEEK FROM NOW. FOR THOSE DREAMING OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS, WE WILL
KEEP DREAMING THIS YEAR. NBM IS NOW AT A 35% CHANCE OF CHATTANOOGA
BREAKING THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE.
FORECAST HIGH NORMAL HIGH RECORD HIGH
CHATTANOOGA: 74 52 75
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT: 71 49 76
TRI-CITIES: 65 48 74
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
VFR TAFS THIS PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. A CLOUD
DECK WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 47 66 52 / 0 10 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 45 61 54 / 0 10 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 44 60 51 / 0 10 10 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 38 56 49 / 0 20 10 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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