699
FXUS64 KMRX 222350
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
650 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 639 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RH'S FALLING
WELL INTO THE 20S.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LOW RAIN CHANCES OFF AND ON
MID TO LATE WEEK. ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT.
- UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A LOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BRINGING A WEAK
BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TOMORROW. CAMS SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS. WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE, SOME OF THIS LIGHT
RAIN MAY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. CHANCES FOR RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND ARE BETTER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW WITH WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE
PRESENT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS A MINOR WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG RIDGE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AGAIN, ANY
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PRESENT.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY BRINGING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A
SERIES OF MINOR WAVES WILL BRING LOW LIGHT RAIN CHANCES OFF AND
ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SUNDAY WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CLEAN
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH COOLER WEATHER NEXT MONDAY.
A WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY WITH THINGS REALLY HEATING UP BY
WEDNESDAY, REMAINING WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHATTANOOGA WILL HAVE
A SHOT AT THE RECORD HIGH ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH THE FORECAST AT ONE
DEGREE BELOW.
CHRISTMAS DAY:
FORECAST HIGH NORMAL HIGH RECORD HIGH
CHATTANOOGA: 74 52 75
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT: 69 49 76
TRI-CITIES: 63 48 74
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
INCREASING LLJ OVERNIGHT WILL BRING POSSIBLE LLWS CONDITIONS TO
TYS AND TRI. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TOMORROW
AND MAY REACH MVFR LEVELS EARLY IN THE DAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WITHIN
THE FLOW PATTERN, WANTS TO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT OCCURRING, GIVEN HOW DRY
IT IS AND HAS BEEN. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S TO SW, WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE AT TYS BEGINNING MID TO LATE MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 66 54 71 / 10 10 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 62 55 67 / 10 20 40 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 61 52 66 / 20 20 50 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 56 50 61 / 20 20 40 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...KS
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