061
FXUS64 KMRX 281840
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
140 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
- VERY WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS BEING
BROKEN AGAIN.
- SHOWERS AND A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT. EITHER
WIND ADVISORIES OR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.
- MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT, AND
HIGHS IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BEFORE A BIG
PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING TONIGHT. LOW 70S ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON ALREADY. WILL
INCLUDE CLIMATE STATS BELOW.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING. EXPECT THESE
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A LOW CENTER
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS, WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS
IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP
AND TRAIL IT TO THE SOUTHWEST. DAMMING TO THE EAST UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KICK-START THE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LIKELY EARLIER THAN ANYWHERE ELSE BECAUSE OF INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL NOT BE A TRUE MOUNTAIN WAVE SET-UP FOR THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS GIVEN THE FLOW DIRECTION WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH, AS
INDICATED BY THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE THERE. WIND ADVISORIES
WERE ALSO ADDED FOR THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.
UPON LOOKING AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM HREF, RRFS, AND OTHERS,
WINDS APPEAR THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA - VALLEY AND SW NC. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WAS ISSUED THERE
MENTIONING GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, WITH POSSIBLE POCKETS OF NEAR 40
MPH. AFTER 7 AM OR SO, WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST, BUT WILL HANG ON FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE EASTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE PRIMARY DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
THE WEST.
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR MIDNIGHT
FOR THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS MARK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT
THE MOST WE CAN EXPECT ARE GUSTS TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SURFACE
FROM ALOFT WITH ANY GUSTY SHOWERS. THE STRONGEST OF ANY STORMS OR
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE LOW'S CENTER SOUTH
OF MICHIGAN. IT APPEARS ANY INFLUENCE OF RETURN-
FLOW/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND TEENS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FORECAST
TUESDAY MORNING AND SOME WINDS PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS WELL, WIND CHILLS NEAR 0 WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WEATHER TURNS DRY LATER TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND 10 DEGREES OR SO FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY NEXT WEEKEND,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH. WHERE THIS SETS UP MAY DETERMINE HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE SEE. THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NC COULD SURE
USE SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN TO REMOVE SOME OF THE MODERATE DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES, GENERALLY TO AROUND 25KTS,
BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT TYS. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
BEGIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THEN WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. THEN, CHA WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NW BY
SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 42 49 24 41 / 90 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 40 46 22 37 / 90 20 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 39 44 22 37 / 100 20 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 48 20 33 / 80 30 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
/9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
MARION-MORGAN-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99
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