892
FXUS64 KMRX 311128
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
628 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT.
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- DRY AND SEASONALLY MILDER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
CURRENTLY, BROAD TROUGHING IS CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE NORHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RECEDING TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME
TIME, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
JET STREAK OF OVER 110 KTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PUT
THE REGION IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE JET, LEADING TO SOME LIFT.
A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN INTO NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SUFFICIENT FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING, SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH QPF TOTALS APPROACHING A TENTH
OF AN INCH IN HIGHER ELEVATION PLACES. AS SUCH, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS.
ON THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH TROUGHING LIFTING
AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. BY FRIDAY, A WEAK SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH THIS CONTINUALLY SOUTHWARD
SHIFTING TRACK, BETTER POPS WILL BE FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING AT OR BELOW 850MB, KEEPING PRECIPITATION AS ALL
RAIN. WITH THIS SOUTHERN TRACK, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED IN
OUR AREA, COMPARED TO PLACES IN MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA.
BY SATURDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TRACKED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH
BROAD RIDGING AND A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS SAME PATTERN WILL PERSIST SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH VARYING INDICATIONS OF A FRONT APPROACHING BY
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ON TIMING AND HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT, BUT A RETURN OF LOW-END RAIN CHANCES IS
THE ONLY CURRENT EXPECTATION, IF ANYTHING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
CURRENTLY, A CLOUD DECK AROUND 5KFT AT TRI AND TYS. THE CLEARING
LINE IS ALMOST AT TYS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO ERODE EARLY
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RETURN OF 5KFT CEILINGS AT TRI AFTER
06Z.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 31 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 29 50 33 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 47 28 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 29 43 28 / 0 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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