749
FXUS64 KMRX 010015
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 646 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
- QUICK SYSTEM BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL, MAINLY FLURRIES, IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT.
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
- DRY AND SEASONALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
WE REMAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
TROUGHING AND COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS AND RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. A QUICK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
12Z THURSDAY. IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL OUT AS IT REACHES OUR AREA,
BUT WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN
09Z AND 15Z THURSDAY, BUT AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE AROUND A TRACE TO
0.02 INCHES. THIS CORRESPONDS TO VERY LIGHT SNOW ON THE ORDER OF
FLURRIES TO A DUSTING. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND MID-SOUTH REGION WITH ISENTROPIC STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS, BUT DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SURFACE EARLY ON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION BUT LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS NEAR 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
EVENING WITH COOLER, NEAR NORMAL AIR BRIEFLY RETURNING ON SUNDAY.
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AMPLIFIES LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY, BUT
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT AND PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
PRIMARILY FAR NORTH OF OUR REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
FOR TRI/TYS, LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AMONG A
DEVELOPING SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TONIGHT INTO THU. HREF PROBABILITIES
OF MVFR CIGS ARE GREATEST AT TRI(70-90%). LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS AT
TYS(25%) AND IS WHY ONLY A SCT DECK WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE IN VICINITY OF TRI THU MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT CHA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 31 57 35 57 / 0 0 0 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 51 33 55 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 29 50 31 53 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 29 44 29 51 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...99
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