165
FXUS64 KMRX 021735
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1235 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
- A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL BRING RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
- NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS,
ESPECIALLY THE CLOSER YOU GET TO THE TN/GA/NC STATE LINE. AREAS
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR WILL ONLY HAVE MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS NORTH OF I-40 LOW PROBABILITIES AND LIKELY
DRY FOR SOUTHWEST VA. EVEN WITH THE HIGHER POPS DOWN SOUTH, QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.2 AND 0.4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. PRECIP EXITS EAST SATURDAY MORNING BUT CLOUDS LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THOUGH.
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM SUNDAY AND ONWARD, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING EACH DAY THEREAFTER. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL BE COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAY TIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP COMES LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED. MODELS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT
ON PATTERN EVOLUTION AND SPECIFICS WITH ANY ONE SYSTEM. SO WHILE
EVENT SPECIFIC DETAILS AREN'T CLEAR, THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
CONDUCIVE FOR INCREASING POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AT CHA LATER THIS EVENING AS RAIN SHOWERS
SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEN, IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT UNTIL
MVFR RETURNS AROUND SUNRISE. TYS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO MVFR TONIGHT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS, TRI LIKELY STAYS VFR AS THE SHOWERS
WON'T QUITE REACH THAT FAR NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 60 37 55 / 90 20 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 58 34 52 / 60 20 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 43 58 32 50 / 50 20 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 53 31 47 / 30 40 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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