764
FXUS64 KMRX 101116
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
616 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 612 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLOODING EXISTS SOUTH
OF I-40 WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS.
- SEASONALLY COLDER AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE.
RAIN: THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ON AND OFF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL MOSTLY LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED EAST OF
CHATTANOOGA AND SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE. SO LOCATIONS SUCH AS MCMINN,
MONROE, AND POLK COUNTY IN TN AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST NC. THESE ARE THE AREAS WHERE THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
40KT 850MB JET WILL RESIDE. LATER THIS MORNING, AROUND 15Z, THE 850
MB JET PUSHES FURTHER NORTH AND INTO THE REST OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME HEAVIER RAIN RATES TO RETURN ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH AROUND 18 TO 21Z. THE LATEST 3HR FFG VALUES ARE AROUND 2
INCHES ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA AND THE 6HR VALUES ARE AROUND 2.5
TO 3 INCHES. EVENT REMAINING STORM TOTAL PRECIP VALUES ARE AROUND
0.75 TO 1 INCHES FOR MOST OF OUR AREA, AND AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. UP TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NC AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SMOKIES. BECAUSE OF
THIS, THE PROBABILITY FOR FLOODING REMAINS VERY LOW AS THESE VALUES
ARE WELL BELOW FFG VALUES. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
RUNNING AT THIS TIME. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH EAST AND
OUT OF OUR AREA AROUND 21Z, BUT THEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE BACK IN
LATER THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WIND: WITH THE 850MB JET PUSHING NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING, WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON
FROM AROUND 12Z THROUGH 18Z. LATEST HREF PROBS NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH ONLY ISOLATED AREAS OF 30 TO 40%
PROBS. COVE MOUNTAIN WILL MOST LIKELY SEE A 40 TO 50 MPH GUST DURING
THIS TIME, BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WINDS THEN PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 30 TO 40KTS AT 850MB. THIS WILL
BE ANOTHER PERIOD WHERE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
STORMS: NOTHING HAS CHANGED TOO MUCH WITH THE SEVERE THREAT.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH ONLY VERY LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SOME SBCAPE LATER TODAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE UNLIKELY, THE MAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TN INTO
SOUTHWEST VA. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT IF ANY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH A
PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM
A AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE PNW, TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS MID WEEK. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AND COLD
TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE DAY. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE PRIMARILY IFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A SLOW RETURN BACK
TO MVFR WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALSO BE COINCIDENT WITH RAIN
EXITING, WHICH IS NOT UNTIL MUCH LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING
FOR TRI. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO BE MORE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR ARE LIKELY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AT CHA AND TYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 36 44 26 / 100 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 34 42 24 / 100 30 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 34 42 24 / 100 20 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 32 38 21 / 100 60 20 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-EAST POLK-
HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW
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