201
FXUS64 KMRX 101818
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER THAN AMBIENT TEMPS. TREES AND
POWERLINES WILL BE VULNERABLE.
- SEASONALLY COLDER AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
IN THE SHORT-TERM, A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OVERNIGHT, FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION RAPIDLY TO A
NORTHWESTERLY REGIME USHERING IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A 35-45 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT
850MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN
THIS REGIME, PARTICULARLY WHERE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND EXPOSED RIDGES OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OF THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES MAY SQUEEZE OUT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT - AREAS SUCH AS HIGH KNOB, ROAN
MOUNTAIN, ETC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MUCH
COLDER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AS NATURE FINALLY GOT THE
MEMO THAT IT IS STILL WINTER.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS O F THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS MOST LIKELY
AFFECTED. THIS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES
IN THE HIGH ELEVATION COMMUNITIES. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE BREEZY
BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTION TO
THE NEXT, POSSIBLY IMPACTFUL TROUGH. CURRENT ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HOVER AROUND 30-40%,
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN LOW. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THE AREA, IT
WOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY (LESS THAN 25%) OF A WINTRY MIX. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WOULD SEE THE MAJORITY OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA, HOWEVER, A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES AFTER 04Z.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AND
LIKELY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AT ALL TAF SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KCHA
AND KTYS WILL OCCUR MID MORNING BUT KTRI WILL REMAIN AT MVFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 44 27 51 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 35 41 23 46 / 20 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 34 41 24 46 / 20 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 38 20 44 / 50 30 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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