508
FXUS64 KMRX 102355
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
655 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER THAN AMBIENT TEMPS. TREES AND
POWERLINES WILL BE VULNERABLE.
- SEASONALLY COLDER AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
IN THE SHORT-TERM, A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OVERNIGHT, FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION RAPIDLY TO A
NORTHWESTERLY REGIME USHERING IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A 35-45 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT
850MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN
THIS REGIME, PARTICULARLY WHERE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND EXPOSED RIDGES OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OF THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES MAY SQUEEZE OUT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT - AREAS SUCH AS HIGH KNOB, ROAN
MOUNTAIN, ETC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MUCH
COLDER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AS NATURE FINALLY GOT THE
MEMO THAT IT IS STILL WINTER.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS O F THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS MOST LIKELY
AFFECTED. THIS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES
IN THE HIGH ELEVATION COMMUNITIES. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE BREEZY
BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTION TO
THE NEXT, POSSIBLY IMPACTFUL TROUGH. CURRENT ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HOVER AROUND 30-40%,
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN LOW. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THE AREA, IT
WOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY (LESS THAN 25%) OF A WINTRY MIX. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WOULD SEE THE MAJORITY OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WIND SHIFT TO
THE WNW IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 8-15KTS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
TYS/CHA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH TRI HAVING THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES MVFR CIGS CONTINUING INTO MORNING. MAIN FOCUS
TOMORROW WILL BE ON NWLY WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20-30KTS.
OCCASIONAL SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF TRI MID-
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF A MORNING SNOW SQUALL HAPPENS
TO IMPACT TRI DIRECTLY, BRIEF BUT QUICK DROPS IN VISIBILITY WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 44 27 51 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 35 41 23 46 / 20 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 34 41 24 46 / 20 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 38 20 44 / 50 30 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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