415
FXUS64 KMRX 111139
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
639 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER TODAY. MORE SEASONABLE
MONDAY. WARM-UP TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK UNTIL
ANOTHER COOL-DOWN.
- GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. SEE WIND
ADVISORY. TEENS AND SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
- A MEDIUM CHANCE (30 TO 50%) OF A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE TODAY.
- ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL EVENT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. POTENTIAL WEEKEND SYSTEM HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SMALL UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS AND ADJUST THE WEATHER
GRIDS FOR NORTHERN LOCALES. SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TRANSITING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WARM GROUND
SHOULD ACT AS AN EFFECTIVE DETERRENT OF ANY DUSTING OF SNOW, SO
BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE BREEZY SNOW SHOWERS IS THE ONLY
CONCERN OF NOTE TODAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1119 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
AN INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CROSSED THE REGION. ANOTHER AND
MUCH STRONGER FRONT, WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH TIME AND WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A PRETTY STOUT SHORTWAVE WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS WHAT
WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION OR A QUICK BURST
OF SNOW UNDER A NARROW BAND. ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH, IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING TO STICK DUE TO DAYS OF WARMTH AND
INCREASING WINDS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTS WILL DEEPEN AS THEY EXIT OUT OF THE NE US, AND FOLLOWING
CLOSE BEHIND WILL BE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS.
THUS, WILL PROVIDE GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. UP
TO 45 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR THE WIND ADVISORY DESIGNATED ZONES,
WHILE 20 TO 35 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND EACH DAY
WILL BECOME WARMER UNDER EXPANDING HEIGHTS ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE.
WEDNESDAY TRENDS WARM AS WELL, BUT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER BIG
PATTERN CHANGE THAT DAY INTO THURSDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE SWEEP DOWN FROM UPPER CANADA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH, AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN AND MAYBE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION FOR THE VALLEY. QPF
FORECASTS VARY AT THE MOMENT, AND THOSE DISCREPANCIES MAKE ALL
THE DIFFERENCE IN JUST HOW MUCH SNOW THAT WOULD TRANSLATE TO. STAY
TUNED AS THIS FORECAST BECOMES MORE REFINED WHEN WE GET CLOSER TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER WITH DRYING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH AND POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MAY PRODUCE DIFFERENT
P-TYPES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
BREEZY DAY TODAY, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH KTRI HAVING THE
BEST SHOT OF SEEING A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO LATER TODAY. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE INVERSION FORMS AND SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 41 27 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 38 23 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 38 24 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 35 20 44 24 / 40 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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