113
FXUS64 KMRX 120544
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1244 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF FAR EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- ANOTHER WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER AND LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER JETS CARVING OUT A DEEP
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A BAROCLINIC LEAF WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS THE STRONG
300MB JET DYNAMICS ENHANCES THE INCOMING COLD FRONT/FRONTO-GENETIC
FORCING. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY/
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL FRONT ENHANCES THE FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING ALONG
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT STEEPENING THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE A PROBLEM FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR THURSDAY, UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ENHANCING
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. COLD AIR ALOFT SQUEEZING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
LREF PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH OR MORE ARE QUITE HIGH FOR THE PLATEAU,
MOUNTAINS, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR THE FAR EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW LOCATIONS OF FAR EAST TENNESSEE AND
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
FOR FRIDAY, UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AND LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF VARIABILITY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR TAFS WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MVFR
DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS NORTHEAST OF KTRI CURRENTLY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SCATTER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 29 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 28 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 27 53 36 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 21 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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