742
FXUS64 KMRX 142354 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
654 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 650 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
- SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PLATEAU AND VALLEY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- DRY AND COLD WEATHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS RETURNS EARLY THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
CURRENTLY, UPPER TROUGHING IS TO OUR WEST WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE, AND A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH, WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SETTING
UP OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND JET
DYNAMICS, THEN A SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN PEAKS, BUT WE WILL SEE THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AND EVEN THE VALLEYS MAY SEE SNOW SNOW
MIX IN AS THE INITIAL BAND EXITS. AS THE COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW RAMPS UP BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE OROGRAPHICALLY
FORCED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT AND THESE WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. LAPSE RATES, MOISTURE DEPTH,
AND STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A BIG
MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHIC SNOW, BUT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE NORMALLY FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND
ADVISORIES OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THEY ARE, ALTHOUGH WILL LOWER
THE PEAK AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SMOKIES. PORTIONS OF THE
PLATEAU AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE VALLEY MAY SEE A DUSTING TO
AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ON THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS. WILL KEEP THE SPS FOR THESE AREAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AT
TIMES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VERY COLD
WIND CHILLS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE VALUES WILL
DIP BELOW 0 AT TIMES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD BUT DRY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A
BIT BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, AT LEAST SOME OF WHICH WOULD BE SNOW SHOWERS BASED ON
MODEL THERMAL PROFILES. RIGHT NOW, THE NBM SHOWS VERY LOW CHANCES
OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE VALLEY (GENERALLY 10% OR LESS), BUT CLOSER
TO A 50 OR 60% CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW OR MORE ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
RIGHT NOW, SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY DRY, WITH A VERY
COLD SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES BY THE 00Z
HOUR, WITH THE ONLY SHRA STILL AFFECTING KTRI TO COME TO AN END BY
01Z. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LOT OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER
KENTUCKY. THEY SHOULD ONLY AFFECT KTYS AND KTRI AND GIVEN THEIR
CELLULAR NATURE, I JUST HAVE SOME PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THEM.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CIGS BOUNCING BETWEEN UPPER-END MVFR AND LOW-END VFR
TERRITORY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 24 36 22 50 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 23 31 19 47 / 40 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 22 31 19 45 / 30 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 21 27 14 43 / 80 20 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR JOHNSON-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RUSSELL-
WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD
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