323
FXUS64 KMRX 150605
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
105 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1252 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
- AFTER MORNING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS, DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MOST LIKELY
TO BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
- SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW IN OUR AREA, BUT PLACES IN THE EAST
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE.
- DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
CURRENTLY, DEEP TROUGHING IS MOVING OVER THE REGION WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING TO OUR EAST. MUCH OF THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS
PUSHED EAST WITH SATURATION TO 850MB OR HIGHER STILL IN PLACE. WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -10
CELSIUS, SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
BUT WITH THE FOCUS TURNING TOWARDS VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. RESULTING WIND CHILLS WILL BE
BELOW 0 WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. FLURRIES
WILL LINGER FOR SOME EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOISTURE WILL EXIT EVEN
MORE AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE SOUTH. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -10 CELSIUS, HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST WITH A LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE. BETTER
SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE TEENS.
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATER
ON FRIDAY UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE,
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH COLD AIR WILL BE
BELOW 850MB. MOST SOURCES SUGGEST THE REGION TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT
850MB WITH THE 925MB FREEZING LINE IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS OR EVEN
FURTHER NORTH THAN THAT. WITH THIS SCENARIO, FOCUS FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE
PRIMARILY SNOW. QPF TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE ANYWHERE FROM 0.10 TO
0.25 INCHES, MEANING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. FOR REMAINING AREAS, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE MOISTURE EXITS ON
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS ANOTHER PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS A SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST. CURRENTLY, SOLUTIONS STILL DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THIS
SYSTEM PHASES, AS WELL AS THE EXACT TRACK. BUT OUR REGION WILL
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TO BE SNOWFALL.
CURRENTLY, THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE TO
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, BUT MANY SOLUTIONS STILL KEEP THE TRACK
FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR LIMITED IMPACT LOCALLY. BUT SOME STILL SHOW
NOTABLE QPF IN OUR AREA. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL BE A TIME TO WATCH.
BY MONDAY, DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH A CANADIAN
HIGH SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, LEADING TO COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A COMBINATION OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE, MAKING THE CASE FOR LOWS TO DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS TO
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR SOME. AFTERWARDS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES AND A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
RADAR CURRENTLY DEPICTS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY SOME
VIRGA. SATELLITE REVEALS ANOTHER GAP IN THE CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY, AND IT SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 3 HOURS FROM NOW. UNTIL
THEN, LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AT
BOTH KTRI AND KTYS. CIGS MAY WAVER AT TIMES BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR,
BUT POST 09Z CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR VFR. A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY AT KTRI. GUSTY
WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS WEAKENING LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 22 51 35 / 0 0 0 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 18 47 34 / 10 0 0 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 31 18 46 33 / 0 0 0 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 27 14 44 30 / 10 0 0 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR JOHNSON-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RUSSELL-
WISE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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