143
FXUS64 KMRX 160531
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1231 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
- DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
MOVING IN BY EARLY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY.
- DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
CURRENTLY, TROUGHING IS TO OUR EAST WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP FURTHER INTO THE TEENS FOR
MOST. DURING THE DAY, HOWEVER, HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE 40S. WHILE THE DAY WILL
BE DRY, THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER RETURN OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, TEMPERATURES AROUND
850MB WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 00Z TO 03Z WITH COOLING
DOWN TO 925MB BY 09Z OR SO. BASED ON THIS TREND, THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY SEE PRIMARILY SNOW WITH OTHER LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
LIKELY TRANSITIONING AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHEAST TENNESEE AND PERHAPS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLATEAU WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SUFFICIENTLY COLD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIPITATION EXITS. CHANCES ARE HIGH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, TO SEE MULTIPLE INCHES
OF SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. A DUSTING OR MORE IS PROBABLE FOR NORTHEAST
TENNESEE WITH REMAINING PLACES LIKELY TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN
A TRANSITION TO SNOW BUT WITHOUT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MANY ON SATURDAY AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED
CAA AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT, A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF AND THEN QUICKLY TRACK UP THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN AREAS, BUT
THE TRACK WILL KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST. FOCUS WILL
THEN TURN TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -10 CELSIUS, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MANY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SOME PLACES WILL
LIKELY SEE SINGLE DIGIT LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY
MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT RISES ALSO EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT THIS PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AT TYS
AND CHA, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
NOON AT BOTH SITES. GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET BUT
MAINTAIN SW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT. SOME LLWS MAY BE PRESENT IN THE
EVENING, BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. LIGHT PRECIP AND MVFR
CIGS MAY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 35 47 25 / 0 80 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 48 36 45 23 / 0 80 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 33 44 22 / 10 80 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 31 43 21 / 0 70 30 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page