489
FXUS64 KMRX 161813
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
113 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
- DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
MOVING IN BY EARLY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY.
- DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
CLOUD COVER HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN WAKE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW
TREKKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
BETWEEN 8 AND 10PM, GRADUALLY WORKING EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
DEPARTING THE AREA AROUND OR JUST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AS WELL AS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON
NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATION
WITHIN THE DGZ(THROUGH ROUGHLY -16C)AROUND 6-10Z. THAT IS THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES TO OCCUR, PARTICULARLY ON
HIGHER RIDGES AND MOUNTAINS PEAKS ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. SOME LIGHT TOTALS ONE-HALF INCH
OR LESS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN MORE BORDERLINE IN THESE AREAS. WILL BE
COVERING THIS WITH AN SPS FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT THE TIMING OF
THE EVENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE TO REEVALUATE
IF HI-REZ MODELS WANT TO SHOW ANY SORT OF COOLING TRENDS WITH
TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY, A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL TO OUR NORTH, A 4 TO 6
MB PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ASHEVILLE AND SEVIERVILLE
DUE TO CAD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS ALSO
DEPICT AN INVERSION NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 850MB. FOR THIS REASON, A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS. RRFS PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
40MPH INCREASE TO NEAR 90% AS THE LLJ PEAKS AROUND 55-60KTS. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FROM THE MONROE TO GREENE COUNTY
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM 6PM TO 5AM.
WHILE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, A
QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN IS LARGELY EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS SEATED OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND RETURNS MID-WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDEST PERIOD, WHEN WIND CHILLS MAY ALSO BECOME SUB-ZERO IN
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DO NOT RETURN TO THE AREA
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
GUSTY WINDS AT TYS AND CHA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KT RANGE. GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET BUT MAINTAIN SW WINDS
AROUND 10KT. LLWS IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AT AT ALL SITES. LIGHT
PRECIP AND MVFR CIGS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AROUND 03-06Z, WITH TRI
SEEING A CHANGE TO SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS IN THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME.
CHA BACK TO VFR AROUND SUNRISE, AND THE TYS BY MID MORNING. TRI WILL
LIKELY STAY MVFR AFTER SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 49 25 39 / 90 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 37 47 23 35 / 90 20 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 35 46 22 35 / 90 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 30 44 22 31 / 70 30 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99
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