115
FXUS64 KMRX 240116
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
816 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 813 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
- TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION, PRIMARILY
SATURDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL TYPES OF PRECIPITATION
(RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW) ARE EXPECTED.
- THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS (AROUND 3 INCHES OR
LOCALLY HIGHER) ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY
STATE LINE AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE HEAVIEST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS (OVER 0.25 INCHES) ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/SOUTHERN PLATEAU, CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST EAST
TENNESSEE, AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40/81. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE LIMITED FURTHER SOUTH WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MORE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY.
- HIGH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
RIDGE TOPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS APPROACHING OR
FALLING BELOW 0. LOWER WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 813 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RECENT TRENDS, UNICOI, CARTER,
AND JOHNSON COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ADDED INTO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING. THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, NEARING 2 INCHES OR MORE,
LOOK TO BE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. ALL COUNTIES LOOK TO SEE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AT OR ABOVE 0.25 INCHES IN SOME PORTION OF THEM.
THIS IS LESS CONFIDENT IN PLACES LIKE ELIZABETHTON AND HAMPTON DUE
TO LOCAL DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS, BUT OTHER PORTIONS OF CARTER COUNTY
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ALSO
BETTER MATCHES UP WITH PLACES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WE ARE UPGRADING THE WINTER STORM WATCH THIS MORNING. AN ICE STORM
WARNING WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT FOR SW NC AND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL EAST TENNESSEE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
75 CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OF ICE. A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE
THROUGH SW VA WHERE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THE FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARMING WHICH WILL LIMIT ICE ACCRETION IN
THESE AREAS, AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS. ICE ACCRETION FOR THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE MOSTLY
0.1 TO 0.25 INCH OF ICE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER INTO
THE VALLEY AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
IN ADDITION, WE HAVE ADDED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. A 50+ KT LLJ IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH STRONG DUCTING AND STABLE AIR,
MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY EXACERBATE POWER OUTAGE AND TREE
DAMAGE CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN, SIGNAL MOUNTAIN, MOWBRAY MOUNTAIN, AND
ANY HIGHER RIDGETOPS WITHIN THE ICE STORM WARNING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS WIND GUSTS ACROSS RIDGETOPS INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
ONE-HALF INCH OF ICE COATING SURFACES.
JB
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM, SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALOFT WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VIRGA IS LIKELY AHEAD OF ACTUAL PRECIPITATION
AT THE SURFACE BECAUSE OF THE VERY DRY, COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE MAKING IT
TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MOST AREAS WET
BULBING BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSET OF SLEET/SNOW
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE, THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF A WINTRY MIX AND ICE
ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHTER ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
PLEASE SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING, ICE STORM WARNING, AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DETAILS. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 50+ KT LLJ INCREASING ON
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WINDS ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS RIDGE TOPS, WHEN COMBINED WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN
THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA, WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF TREE DAMAGE
AND POWER OUTAGES.
WE BECOME WARM SECTORED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ALL AREAS WARMING UP ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ALL
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL ALSO
LIKELY HELP MELT SOME OF THE ICE AND WINTRY MIX ACCUMULATION.
COLDER AIR RETURNS QUICKLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BLACK ICE BEING A
HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS.
WE REMAIN COLD THIS WEEK WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND NEAR ZERO BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WHILE TEMPERATURES "WARM" SLIGHTLY
MID-WEEK AND TEMPERATURES TRY TO GET ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING
BOUT OF COLD AIR RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK. FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL
BE THE NORM DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
OVERALL, QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS BETWEEN 5,000 AND 15,000 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
HEADING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SLEET, IS EXPECTED INITIALLY, BUT THEN A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
THEN FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AT CHA AND TYS. THE SAME IS EXPECTED AT TRI
BUT LIKELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO, STRONG WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO STRONG LLWS
CONDITIONS. THIS WAS INCLUDED ONLY AT CHA FOR THE TIME BEING
BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT TIMING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 27 38 30 45 / 10 80 100 100
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 24 36 30 47 / 0 90 100 100
OAK RIDGE, TN 22 34 27 44 / 10 90 100 100
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 19 36 27 45 / 0 80 100 100
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-HAMILTON-
JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-RHEA-ROANE-
SEQUATCHIE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-SCOTT TN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SULLIVAN-
UNICOI-UNION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-
NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...BW
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