179
FXUS64 KMRX 240648
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
148 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION, PRIMARILY
AROUND MID-DAY TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW (SUNDAY) NIGHT. ALL TYPES
OF PRECIPITATION (RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW) ARE
EXPECTED.
- THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS (AROUND 3 INCHES OR
LOCALLY HIGHER) ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY
STATE LINE AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE HEAVIEST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS (OVER 0.25 INCHES) ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/SOUTHERN PLATEAU, CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST EAST
TENNESSEE, AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40/81. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE LIMITED FURTHER SOUTH WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MORE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY.
- HIGH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
RIDGE TOPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS APPROACHING OR
FALLING BELOW 0. LOWER WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE HIGHLY ANTICIPATED IMPACTFUL ALMOST COUNTRY-WIDE WINTER STORM
HAS FORMED TO THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS MORNING. TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF OF THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE FLOW WHEN IT SWINGS UP INTO TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL PULSES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL SWEEP DOWN FROM
CANADA, BRINGING MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT WILL FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE WINTER WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO TROUGHING LOCKED
IN OVERHEAD AND RESURGES OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPING DOWN FROM CANADA.
THOUGH MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION MOVING IN
LATER THIS MORNING, THE CHALLENGE TO START WILL BE DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE. ONCE THAT IS OVERCOME, EXPECT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THERE WON'T BE MUCH OF A
DIURNAL CURVE FOR SOME LOCATIONS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
AT THIS TIME AND NOT GETTING TOO MUCH ABOVE THAT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MANY WILL START AS SNOW MIXED WITH OTHER FORMS OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION, AS AIR ALOFT AND DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRIEFLY SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW. AS THE INVERTED TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AND A WARM NOSE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH, IS WHEN THINGS
BEGIN TO CHANGE AND BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE LATER WE GET INTO
TODAY, THE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL STRENGTHEN. COINCIDING WITH
THAT FLOW, WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL BECOME
STRONGER. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS, DESCENDING AIR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE IN PART TO A STRONG WEDGE ON THE OTHER SIDE, WILL
WARM THOSE CLOSEST TO THE MOUNTAINS, LIMITING THE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION VARIETY. WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THAT HAPPENING
WITH THE THE LATEST NAM STILL SHOWING GREATER THAN 60 KT LOW LEVEL
FLOW. THIS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR DAYS. OUR HAZARDS ISSUED AND
LATEST WSSI FROM WPC DEPICT THIS THINKING PRETTY WELL WITH LESSER
WINTER STORM IMPACTS NEARLY EAST OF THE I-75 TO 40 TO I-81
CORRIDOR. A PORTION OF THIS AREA DOESN'T MEET MINOR IMPACTS,
EVEN.
ONE POTENTIAL HAZARD THAT MAY NOT BE THOUGHT MUCH OF IS THE TOTAL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION FROM THIS STORM AND PURE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. WHAT HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONSISTENT MUCH OF THE WEEK IS
TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE. UPSLOPE
AREAS OF PARTS OF THE PLATEAU AND FROM THE GSMNP AND SOUTH, DEPICT
THE POTENTIAL OF NEAR 3 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OR MORE.
THOUGH A LOT OF OUR AREA IS IN A DROUGHT, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD POSE SOME FLOODING IMPACTS. WPC'S ERO
FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CIRCLES AN AREA OF MRGL RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TN COUNTIES INTO CHEROKEE AND CLAY
COUNTIES IN NC.
THE TIME LINE OF GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE NEAR THE START OF THE
SYSTEM TO AROUND EARLY SUNDAY WHEN IT WILL BE COLDEST AND FROZEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE GREATEST. THANKFULLY WITH A CONSISTENT
WARMING TREND BEING FORECAST SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
MAY CHANGE BACK TO THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DRASTICALLY
FALL. THIS, PAIRED WITH WHAT FELL EARLIER IN THE EVENT, COULD
POSE ADDED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EARLY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30. THE SYSTEM ENDS WITH TIME MONDAY,
FINISHING OFF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CAVEATS - THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE THAT SOME WILL END UP WITH
POTENTIALLY LESS FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION, FOR EXAMPLE, IF
TEMPERATURES BUDGE A BIT A CERTAIN WAY, EITHER DUE TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW, DOWNSLOPE WARMING, OR WITH A COMBINATION OF STRUGGLING COLD
AIR. RECENT CAMS TRY TO SHOW WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST
EVEN LATER TODAY. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD THING TO END UP WITH MORE
RAIN THAN FREEZING RAIN. SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVEN'T REALLY
DRASTICALLY CHANGED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF FORECASTS WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE KY AND WV BORDERS, BUT LIKE MENTIONED,
WHAT COULD EASILY CHANGE IS THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN
SLEET. A SMALL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS OR A CERTAIN FACTOR FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOVE COULD MEAN EVERYTHING.
AS BRIEFLY TOUCHED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH, COLD AND MOSTLY DRY
WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND REMAINING FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWING THAT. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BE SENT DOWN WITH THE SHORTWAVES
FROM CANADA WITH POSSIBLE CHANCES FOR WINTERY PRECIPITATION
FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA MID TO LATE WEEK. OTHERWISE, DRY
AND COLD. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME A THREAT WITH ANY
WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
COMPLICATED WINTER STORM MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. A FEW
GUSTY WINDS BEFORE MORNING, WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT REMAIN GENERALLY
NORTHERLY. LATE IN THE PERIOD, LLWS WILL BEGIN FIRST AT KCHA AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. A SMORGASBORD OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL
ENSUE AS THE OUTER TENDRILS OF THE STORM ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TODAY, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO RA AND FZRA AS TIME GOES ON. OBSERVING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND LATITUDE ACROSS THE REGION, AND
SMALL TEMPERATURE CHANGES MAY RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN IMPACTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 27 38 30 / 0 10 80 100
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 24 36 30 / 0 0 90 100
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 22 34 27 / 0 10 90 100
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 19 36 27 / 0 0 80 100
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-HAMILTON-
JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-RHEA-ROANE-
SEQUATCHIE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-SCOTT TN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SULLIVAN-
UNICOI-UNION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-
NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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