629
FXUS64 KMRX 242351
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
651 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
- ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES (RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW)
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.
- LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH, WITH ICING POTENTIAL HAVING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE
HEAVIEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS (OVER 0.25 INCHES) ARE MOST LIKELY
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/SOUTHERN PLATEAU, CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST EAST TENNESSEE, AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40/81.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY.
- HIGH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
RIDGE TOPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS APPROACHING OR
FALLING BELOW 0. LOWER WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE EVENT IS, FOR THE MOST PART, PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS OVER EAST TENNESSEE, BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT TO THE GROUND THANKS TO THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING PRECIP HANGING
UP OVER MIDDLE TN AND NOT SHOWING THE EVENT STARTING IN EARNEST OVER
OUR FORECAST ARE UNTIL THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS BUT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION
TO MIXED PTYPES LIKE WHAT HAPPENED IN CHATTANOOGA THIS MORNING.
OBSERVED CONDITIONS THERE HAVE SHOWN THAT THE WARM NOSE HAS BEEN IN
PLACE SINCE THIS MORNING, WITH MIXED PTYPES OCCURRING IN THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION REGION THAT FAR SOUTH SINCE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE H85 FREEZING LINE WILL BE AS FAR
NORTH AS THE KY/TN/VA BORDER AREAS BETWEEN 7 TO 9PM THIS EVENING,
INDICATING THAT SNOW IS GOING TO BE EXTREMELY LIMITED BOTH IN
DURATION AND ACCUMULATION. SO, AS WE'VE BEEN FOCUSED ON THE LAST
DAY OR SO, THIS IS PRIMARILY AN ICING CONCERN. THE COMBINATION OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW, DAYTIME HEATING, AND STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ICE POTENTIAL IN THE EASTERN TN VALLEY, WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS WEST OF I-75 AND I-81 AND IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL.
GIVEN THE DEPICTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE WARM AIR ALOFT ADVANCES
NORTH, I DID LOWER ICE TOTALS A SMIDGE. I DIDN'T LOWER THEM ENOUGH
TO WARRANT ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES WE HAVE OUT THOUGH. STILL
BELIEVE THAT ICE ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE I-75 AND I-81 CORRIDORS
FROM GREENEVILLE SOUTHWARD TO OUR GEORGIA BORDER WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE GIVEN THE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION AND
INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND EFFECTS THAT WILL HAVE ON
TEMPERATURES. SO THE ADVISORY STILL SEEMS OK THERE. LOWERED
SNOW/SLEET TOTALS IN THE NORTH BUT THERE'S STILL ENOUGH OF A MIX
TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THEM AS A WINTER STORM WARNING. AND ELSEWHERE,
WITH FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, AND THERE
STILL BE A SIGNAL FOR NOTABLE ICING, THE ICE STORM WARNING SEEMS
APPROPRIATE THERE AS WELL.
THE ONE THING I WOULD SAY IS THAT MOST OF THE MORNING GUIDANCE HAS
NEARLY ALL OF OUR CWA CHANGING TO RAIN BY 09Z OR THEREABOUTS. IF
THAT HOLDS TRUE, OUR ICE TOTALS MAY BE OVERDONE. SINCE WE'VE NOT
REALLY STARTED THE EVENT YET, IT'S HARD TO JUSTIFY MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
OTHERWISE, THE H85 FLOW ON MOST ALL GUIDANCE STILL WARRANTS THE
HIGH WIND WARNING, ESPECIALLY WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STRONG CAD
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE RESULTING ROUGHLY 10MB PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN KGSP AND KTYS.
LASTLY, THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR IS STILL ON TAP. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK OVER TO SOME SORT OF MIXED
PTYPE REGIME SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG CAA TAKES OVER. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE LOW LEVELS COOLING DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY EVENING. BUT WE'RE
GOING TO RUN INTO A SITUATION WHERE THERE THE COLUMN ISN'T
SATURATED INTO THE DGZ SO WE COULD END UP WITH A MIXED BAG OF
PTYPES AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALL IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MONDAY WE WON'T MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING MOST LIKELY,
THEN WE FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED
SOME HEADLINE TO ADDRESS THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS,
BUT I WANTED TO GET PAST THIS EVENT BEFORE ISSUING SOMETHING FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM OR TWO
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THEY DON'T LOOK VERY
IMPACTFUL AND AS WE'VE SEEN...WAITING FOR MORE CLARITY ON DETAILS
BEFORE TALKING SPECIFICS CAN BE USEFUL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH FROZEN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BUILD INTO
CHA AND TYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE
MOUNTAINS KEEP PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS LOW AT TRI. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BUT DO NOT INTRODUCE REDUCED CIGS AT
TRI UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL
RAIN TOMORROW MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH AN
INCREASING PRESENCE OF A STRONG LLJ TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 31 47 18 30 / 100 100 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 47 19 27 / 100 100 40 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 29 44 16 27 / 100 100 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 29 47 18 24 / 100 100 70 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-
MCMINN-MEIGS-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-MORGAN-
NORTHWEST CARTER-SCOTT TN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-NORTH SEVIER-
NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT
VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...KRS
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