924
FXUS64 KMRX 252345
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
645 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 640 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
- HIGH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
RIDGE TOPS TODAY. GUSTS OF 70 MPH, EXCEPT UP TO 90 MPH POSSIBLE
FOR COVE MOUNTAIN.
- PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITAION TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES. VERY LIGHT ICE OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT, AS WILL PATCHES OF BLACK
ICE FROM REFREEZING WATER ON ROADWAYS.
- EXTREMELY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, AND IT WILL REMAIN COLD THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR WEST WILL SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TODAY, WITH COLDER RUSHING IN BEHIND
IT. OBSERVATIONS SHOW US CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA,
AND PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCED
WINDS ARE STILL VERY STRONG IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
FOOTHILLS AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z.
ACTUALLY HAD A REPORTED GUST TO 93 MPH AT VOVE MOUNTAIN. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
OFF TO OUR EAST, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR BEING IN
THE LOWEST LEVELS, WITH A DEEP ISOTHERMAL OR SLIGHT INVERSION LAYER
ABOVE. AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN, SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BE SQUEEZED OUT ESPECIALLY NORTH AND CENTRAL. THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT FIRST, THEN SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT, BUT THIS COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE DUE TO
REFREEZING OF LINGERING MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT AND THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL
ISSUE AN SPS ADDRESSING THESE CONCERNS.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLD. TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND ENOUGH WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING TO PUSH WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF THE AREA, AND DIPPING TO BETWEEN ZERO AND TEN BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS IS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
THE COLD THEME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH,
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY, AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH WIND TO PUSH WIND CHILL VALUES TO WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SW VA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF E TN, AND TO NEAR ZERO OR THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WILL ISSUE A EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND SW VA, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ELSEWHERE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY, ALTHOUGH SHORT WAVES
DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT TIMES. MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE
DETAILS ON THESE WAVES THIS FAR OUT, AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THE DETAILS. RIGHT NOW, THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME AND AGAIN DURING EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND, BUT THESE DETAILS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
AN EXPANSIVE LOW-LEVEL MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK BLANKETS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT CHA, WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR TYS/TRI. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND A
SURFACE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FROPA. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
10-15KTS FOR THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 16 30 10 39 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 18 28 9 35 / 30 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 16 27 8 35 / 20 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 17 25 6 31 / 50 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO
10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ MONDAY TO NOON
EST /11 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
UNICOI.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS
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