980
FXUS64 KMRX 270542
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1242 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
- EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH A RISE
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT
STILL RISING ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR, POSSIBLY WORSE THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING SEEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
CURRENTLY, TROUGHING AND A STRONG UPPER JET ARE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SETUP HAS LED TO EXTREME COLD CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS PRODUCING EVEN LOWER WIND CHILLS BUT SOMEWHAT LIMITING HOW
CLOSE TO 0 TEMPERATURES FALL. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. DURING THE DAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING TO THE SOUTH AND
ANOTHER HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PROMOTE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE FREEZING FOR
MANY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWS FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
FOR MANY. ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE NOTED ALOFT BUT WITH
MORE NORTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE REGION DRY. THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN OUR AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT FOCUS
DOES START TO SHIFT TOWARDS OUR NORTHWEST. TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH DIVING OUT OF
CANADA.
BY FRIDAY, TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE
BROAD WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH REACHING 1045MB OR GREATER AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE FOCUS IN THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WHERE A STRONG SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
TRACK UP THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA,
THIS TRACK CONTINUES TO KEEP IMPACTS WELL TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, AS
THE ARCTIC HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE AREA, MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. QPF TOTALS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE LIGHT, BUT THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR SUGGESTS SNOW RATIOS WOULD BE
HIGH. REGARDLESS, THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE ANOTHER
EXPANSION OF BITTERLY COLD AIR, POTENTIALLY WORSE THAN WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING. ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW -15 CELSIUS, POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR -20 CELSIUS. VALUES THIS LOW
ARE NEARING RECORD VALUES AND CERTAINLY NOT SEEN WITH REGULARITY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS FOR MANY WITH
SINGLE DIGITS FOR SOME A COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING AREA-WIDE, AT A MINIMUM. SO ANY SNOW THAT
DOES FALL COULD BE HERE FOR A FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR TAF WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE, ESPECIALLY AT
KTRI, AND THOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE TAF, CANNOT RULE OUT
MVFR CIGS BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD AT KTRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 40 21 43 22 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 36 19 39 19 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 36 18 38 18 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 17 34 16 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT
VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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