909
FXUS64 KMRX 272337 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
637 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
- COLD WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT DUSTING IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME ISOLATED
AREAS.
-ANOTHER SURGE OF BITTER COLD IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EAST
OF I-81 TOWARD THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
A VERY WEAK WAVE OF ENERGY, AND LIMITED MOISTURE, STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT FROM OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS
MOISTURE LAYER CONFINED BETWEEN 900MB AND UP TO 850MB. HOWEVER, THE
CURRENT AIRMASS IS SO COLD THAT THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE LAYER IS
AROUND -12 TO -15C. BECAUSE OF THIS, I EXPECT SOME LIGHT FLURRIES AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. THE NBM
HAD ZERO POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THIS SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY. I PUT
IN FLURRIES FROM KNOXVILLE NORTHWARD. I ALSO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME ISOLATED AREAS NORTH OF I-40 PICKUP A DUSTING OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS, NORTHEAST TN, AND SOUTHWEST VA.
DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN, ALL EYES TURN TOWARD THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES ARE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND. LATEST FORECAST HIGH TEMPS FOR SATURDAY RANGE
BETWEEN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S WITH SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY FOR MOST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
VALUES BELOW 0 IN ACROSS OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ASIDE FROM THE COLD, THE BIGGEST FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY DEEP TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO ARE AREA. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE OUR
SNOWFALL CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS REASONABLE THAT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA, NORTHEAST TN AND THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS,
COULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LATEST NBM
PROBS YIELD AROUND 40 TO 50% CHANCE TO SEE GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF
SNOWFALL AND AROUND 20% CHANCE TO SEE 3 INCHES. THESE VALUES LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT BY
SUNDAY BUT SOME LIGHT FLURRIES COULD REMAIN WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON TUESDAY AS
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS. THESE TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
SOME INCOMING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLD SHSN LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MVFR CIGS SHOW UP AT KTYS AND KTRI. THE
PROB30 GROUPS WILL COVER IT. OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT
AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW. MIXING AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 20-22KT AT KTRI TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10-12KT AT KTYS AND 10KT OR LESS AT KCHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 23 43 22 42 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 20 38 19 39 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 19 37 18 38 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 18 33 14 34 / 20 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD
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