316
FXUS64 KMRX 280546
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1246 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT
STILL RISING ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
- LIGHT SNOW IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
- EXTREME COLD WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY COLDER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN IN RECENT DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
CURRENTLY, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH GENERAL
MID TO UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING
OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, COLD
AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS
OVERALL PATTERN. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE RECEDING TO OUR SOUTH.
FOCUS WILL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AS A
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT TO THE EAST, EVENTUALLY
TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL ALSO BE IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE 1,050MB ARCTIC HIGH PROGRESSING OUT OF CANADA.
EVENTUALLY, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH, MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA, IN ADDITION TO EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA, TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE ATLANTIC LOW
SLIGHTLY WEST, IN ADDITION TO BETTER OVERALL INDICATIONS FOR SNOW
SNOW IN OUR REGION. THIS COMES FROM NORTHWESTERN MOISTURE AND
WESTERN EFFECTS OF THE ATLANTIC LOW. WHILE QPF OUTPUTS REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT, EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE -15 CELSIUS OR LESS. THE FOCUS FOR
HIGHER TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS SETUP WILL CERTAINLY DIFFER FROM THE
LAST BECAUSE THE WHOLE REGION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WITH THE
QUESTION JUST BEING WHERE IT FALLS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
FOCUS, IN ADDITION TO THE EXTREME COLD. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO
NEAR OR BELOW 0 WHERE SNOW FALLS ONCE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS TROUGHING LIFTS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE BACK ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KTRI WHILE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE IN THE AREA. LESSER CHANCES AT KTYS, WHICH
IS AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DISTURBANCE. A FEW GUSTY WINDS
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST, WITH
OTHERWISE DRY VFR TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 42 21 42 26 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 37 19 38 24 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 36 18 38 23 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 13 34 20 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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