441
FXUS64 KMRX 282304
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
604 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 602 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
- IT WILL BE DRY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SNOW IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
- ARCTIC COLD WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WE REMAIN UNDER BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING ALOFT, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER OUR REGION. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP US
DRY BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY, MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS, CUTTING OFF BY SATURDAY
AS IT TRACKS OVER OUR AREA AND THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE THE SE COAST
BEFORE STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
AREA, AND IN THIS CASE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS NOT IN QUESTION BUT THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
WE WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOW BEGIN TO SHOW UP FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH AS
WE SEE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. THEN, AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND THE UPPER JET TO ITS SOUTH NOSES IN, WE
WILL SEE A PERIOD OF UPPER DIVERGENCE THAT WILL ENHANCE SNOW
CHANCES. OF COURSE, THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SE AND E WILL BE CRITICAL, AND THE MODELS OFTEN
STRUGGLE WITH THESE DETAILS EVEN JUST A FEW DAYS OUT. RIGHT NOW, THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE OVER OUR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. CURRENTLY, NBM PROBABILITY DATA SHOWS
AROUND A 40% TO 60% CHANCE OF 72 HOUR SNOWFALL EXCEEDING 4 INCHES
BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NE TN VALLEY AND SW VA, AND A 20%
TO 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY, NORTHERN PLATEAU, AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NE TN.
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORMALLY FAVORED TERRAIN AS WELL.
THE OTHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD. ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL RUSH IN ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE LOWER 20S EVEN
IN THE VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEYS WITH WELL BELOW ZERO VALUES AT TIMES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA, AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TO BE VERY COLD AS
WELL.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WENDESDAY. THERE
IS POOR AGREEMENT ON ADDITIONAL WAVES THAT MAY BRING PRECIPITATION,
BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A MODICUM OF AGREEMENT FOR MORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
WE REMAIN UNDER BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING ALOFT, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER OUR REGION. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP US
DRY BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY, MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS, CUTTING OFF BY SATURDAY
AS IT TRACKS OVER OUR AREA AND THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE THE SE COAST
BEFORE STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
AREA, AND IN THIS CASE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS NOT IN QUESTION BUT THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
WE WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOW BEGIN TO SHOW UP FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH AS
WE SEE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. THEN, AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND THE UPPER JET TO ITS SOUTH NOSES IN, WE
WILL SEE A PERIOD OF UPPER DIVERGENCE THAT WILL ENHANCE SNOW
CHANCES. OF COURSE, THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SE AND E WILL BE CRITICAL, AND THE MODELS OFTEN
STRUGGLE WITH THESE DETAILS EVEN JUST A FEW DAYS OUT. RIGHT NOW, THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE OVER OUR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. CURRENTLY, NBM PROBABILITY DATA SHOWS
AROUND A 40% TO 60% CHANCE OF 72 HOUR SNOWFALL EXCEEDING 4 INCHES
BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NE TN VALLEY AND SW VA, AND A 20%
TO 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY, NORTHERN PLATEAU, AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NE TN.
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORMALLY FAVORED TERRAIN AS WELL.
THE OTHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD. ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL RUSH IN ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE LOWER 20S EVEN
IN THE VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEYS WITH WELL BELOW ZERO VALUES AT TIMES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA, AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TO BE VERY COLD AS
WELL.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WENDESDAY. THERE
IS POOR AGREEMENT ON ADDITIONAL WAVES THAT MAY BRING PRECIPITATION,
BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A MODICUM OF AGREEMENT FOR MORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AT TRI. WHILE LLWS WAS NOT
INCLUDED, WINDS NEAR OR ABOVE 2,000 FEET AGL WILL REACH AROUND 30
KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH COULD STILL IMPACT SMALLER AIRCRAFT.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WINDS WILL BE FROM A SIMILAR
DIRECTION BUT LIGHTER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 22 42 26 43 / 0 0 0 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 20 39 25 40 / 0 0 0 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 19 38 24 40 / 0 0 0 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 14 34 21 37 / 0 10 0 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW
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