666
FXUS64 KMRX 291132
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
632 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- EXTREME COLD WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW 0 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND SINGLE DIGIT OR LESS FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.
- A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS, MOST OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY,
INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES METRO AND KNOXVILLE. SNOW IS EXPECTED
MAINLY BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE EXACTLY THE WESTERN EXTENT OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE IS
RELATIVELY LOW, BUT COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK IMPACTS
AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
CURRENTLY, MID/UPPER TROUGHING IS CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ARE EJECTING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. LATER
TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THE WEAK LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS
THE GULF WITH ANOTHER MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL ALSO TRACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN U.S. WITH THIS WILL COME ANOTHER SURGE OF EXTREMELY COLD
AIR, AS COLD OR COLDER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN.
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL
BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ALSO, FOCUS WILL TURN TOWARDS THE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF, WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL INTENSIFY COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL LATER ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WITH VERY COLD THERMAL PROFILES, SNOW RATIOS WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN A LOT OF EVENTS WE SEE, LIKELY 15:1 OR GREATER.
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS REMAINS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM AS IT STRENGTHENS.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, THE KNOXVILLE AREA AND
INTERSTATE 75 NORTHWARD SEEM TO DELINEATE CONFIDENCE IN MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST 3
INCHES. FOR THE MOUNTAINS, FAR EAST TENNESSEE, AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA, PROBABILITIES FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO
40 PERCENT AS SNOW WILL LINGER MORE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WITH
TEMPERATURES FAR BELOW FREEZING AREA-WIDE, SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON
ANY AND EVERY SURFACE AS IT WON'T BE THE WEST SNOW OFTEN SEEN.
ASIDE FROM THE SNOWFALL, THE EXTREME NATURE OF COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST, KEEPING A STRONG MSLP GRADIENT AND
BREEZY WINDS WITH 850MB TO -18 CELSIUS, NEAR RECORD LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. BELOW 0 WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BECOMES CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. PLACES THAT HAVE
SNOWPACK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW 0.
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA. AS TROUGHING
SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST, HEIGHT RISES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE
BACK ABOVE FREEZING BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. FURTHER HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST, BRINGING A RETURN IN PRECIP CHANCES BY
WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME, HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
WARMED ENOUGH FOR PREDOMINANTLY RAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR
LEVELS WILL BEGIN WORKING THEIR WAY IN LATE TONIGHT AT KTRI. LIGHT
WINDS TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 40 25 44 19 / 0 0 10 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 37 24 40 17 / 0 0 20 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 36 24 39 16 / 0 0 20 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 21 35 15 / 10 10 60 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-NORTH
SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
WASHINGTON TN.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
UPDATE...WELLINGTON
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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